JGB TECHS: (U5) Rallies Off Lows
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 141.48/142.95 - High May 2 / High Apr 7
- PRICE: 139.22 @ 16:31 GMT Jun 24
- SUP 1: 138.54 - Low May 22
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs hold above recent lows, however a bearish theme remains intact following the reversal that started Apr 7. A continuation lower would signal scope for an extension towards 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. On the upside, a reversal higher would instead refocus attention on 142.95, the Apr 7 high. The first important resistance to watch is 141.48, the May 2 high. A break of this level would be viewed as an early bullish signal.
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ASIA: Government Bond Issuance Today
- Bank of Korea to Sell KRW500bn 91-Day Bonds
- South Korea to Sell KRW2.9tn 5-Year Bonds
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 91D Bills (PH0000059164)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 9.0Bln 364D Bills (PH0000060410)
- Philippines To Sell PHP 8.0Bln 182D Bills (PH0000059552)
ASIA: Coming Up in Asia Today
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Customs Exports YoY |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Customs Imports YoY |
| 2300GMT | 1200HKT | 1400AEDT | Thailand Customs Trade Balance |
| 2330GMT | 1230HKT | 1430AEDT | Bloomberg May Thailand Economic Survey |
| 0000GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Industrial Production SA MoM |
| 0030GMT | 1300HKT | 1500AEDT | Singapore Industrial Production YoY |
| 0330GMT | 1330HKT | 1530AEDT | Bloomberg May Malaysia Economic Survey |
| 0000GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEDT | Hong Kong Exports YoY |
| 0330GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEDT | Hong Kong Trade Balance HKD |
| 0330GMT | 1630HKT | 1830AEDT | Hong Kong Imports YoY |
NZD: NZD/USD - To Test Above 0.6000 This Week ?
The NZD had a range Friday night of 0.5913 - 0.5990, Asia is trading around 0.5990. The USD got sold across the board on Friday in response to Trump imposing a 50% tariff on Europe. The NZD was a big beneficiary from this and will continue to outperform should the “ sell America” trade continue to gather pace.
- Bloomberg - “Speaking to Fox News, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says that President Donald Trump "believes EU proposals [on trade and tariffs] have not been of good quality". Says the Trump move to impose 50% tariffs on the EU is in response to the Union's slow pace in talks. Bessent: "We hope this lights a fire under the EU....the EU has a collective action problem.”
- “Speaking on BBG TV, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent claims that "Over the next couple of weeks we're going to have several large [trade] deals announced." Adds that "We expect we will be negotiating with China in person again.”
- The NZD continues to trade in a 0.5850/0.6050 range, could this latest round of tariffs provide it with the momentum to break this week ? As the “sell America” trade gathers pace.
- The support back towards 0.5800 has held very well, and while this continues to hold expect buyers to be around on dips. The first target is the highs just above 0.6000, a break here could provide the spark for the next leg higher.
- CFTC Data showed Asset managers maintaining their shorts, while the leveraged community added a decent clip back to their own short.
- Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.5980(NZD513m May 26), Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.5725(NZD1.09b May 28)
Data/Event : RBNZ Wednesday
Fig 1: NZD CFTC Data
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
