BTP TECHS: (U5) Outlook Remains Bullish

• RES 4: 92.40 Low May 8  
• RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance       
• RES 2: 91.87 High May 20 and a key near-term resistance 
• RES 1: 91.21 High May 23                               
• PRICE: 91.00 @ Close May 23
• SUP 1: 90.46 Low May 23                                            
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.

• GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9

German June GFK consumer confidence was essentially in line with consensus at -19.9 (cons -20.0), up slightly from May's -20.8.

• "Both the slight decline in the willingness to buy and the increasing willingness to save are currently having a dampening effect on consumer climate and are preventing the noticeable growth in income and economic prospects from having a stronger impact on the Consumer Climate this month. The savings indicator rises by 1.6 points in May – following a significant decline in the previous month – and climbs to 10.0 points".
• "Consumers' income expectations increase noticeably in May. The indicator gains 6.1 points, climbing to 10.4 points".
• "However, the willingness to buy cannot benefit from the noticeable rise in income prospects this month. After falling by 1.5 points, the indicator slips to -6.4 points"..."Despite improved income prospects, willingness to buy is not increasing. Uncertainty caused by the US government's unpredictable customs and trade policy and a rise in unemployment, which is causing many employees to worry about their own jobs, is continuing. This is causing consumer restraint, even though income expectations are currently viewed more positively".

• "Despite ongoing consumer uncertainty, their economic expectations for the next 12 months continue to rise: in May, the economic indicator increases by 5.9 points to reach a value of 13.1 points. This is already the fourth increase in a row. The last time a higher value was measured was about two years ago, in April 2023, at 14.3 points".