BTP TECHS: (U5) Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.83 @ Close Jun 25
- SUP 1: 119.91 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective. Gains earlier this month reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch lies at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 119.91, the May 29 low.
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GILT TECHS: (U5) Corrective Bounce
- RES 4: 92.40 Low May 8
- RES 3: 92.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 91.87 High May 20 and a key near-term resistance
- RES 1: 91.21 High May 23
- PRICE: 91.00 @ Close May 23
- SUP 1: 90.46 Low May 23
- SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s move lower reinforces the bearish theme. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. A clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.
MNI: GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9
- GERMANY GFK CONSUMER CLIMATE JUNE -19.9
GERMAN DATA: GFK Consumer Confidence Inches Higher For Third Consecutive Month
German June GFK consumer confidence was essentially in line with consensus at -19.9 (cons -20.0), up slightly from May's -20.8.
- "Both the slight decline in the willingness to buy and the increasing willingness to save are currently having a dampening effect on consumer climate and are preventing the noticeable growth in income and economic prospects from having a stronger impact on the Consumer Climate this month. The savings indicator rises by 1.6 points in May – following a significant decline in the previous month – and climbs to 10.0 points".
- "Consumers' income expectations increase noticeably in May. The indicator gains 6.1 points, climbing to 10.4 points".
- "However, the willingness to buy cannot benefit from the noticeable rise in income prospects this month. After falling by 1.5 points, the indicator slips to -6.4 points"..."Despite improved income prospects, willingness to buy is not increasing. Uncertainty caused by the US government's unpredictable customs and trade policy and a rise in unemployment, which is causing many employees to worry about their own jobs, is continuing. This is causing consumer restraint, even though income expectations are currently viewed more positively".
"Despite ongoing consumer uncertainty, their economic expectations for the next 12 months continue to rise: in May, the economic indicator increases by 5.9 points to reach a value of 13.1 points. This is already the fourth increase in a row. The last time a higher value was measured was about two years ago, in April 2023, at 14.3 points".
