BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle

• The wage data there all a bit softer than expected, including the key private regular AWE data that was 2 tenths below consensus.
• The unemployment data was in line with expectations, rising to 4.6%.
• A really big miss for the very volatile flash PAYE RTI payrolls number at -109k for May. Take that with a handful of salt. But the April figure being revised down to -55k (rather than revised up) is a little concerning here.
• Overall the data is on the soft side.
• GBPUSD fell around 15 pips on the release but didn't challenge its overnight lows.

• RES 4: 167.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
• RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24         
• RES 1: 165.45 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 164.85 @ 07:00 BST Jun 10 
• SUP 1: 163.59 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 162.85 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26 
• SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support   

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The cross has pierced key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support lies at 163.59, the 20-day EMA.

• MNI: NORWAY MAY UNDERLYING CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y