BTP TECHS: (U5) Corrective Cycle
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.53 @ Close Jul 9
- SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and the latest pullback appears corrective - for now. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A resumption of the bull cycle would open the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23 low.
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UK DATA: Soft wage and payrolls data
- The wage data there all a bit softer than expected, including the key private regular AWE data that was 2 tenths below consensus.
- The unemployment data was in line with expectations, rising to 4.6%.
- A really big miss for the very volatile flash PAYE RTI payrolls number at -109k for May. Take that with a handful of salt. But the April figure being revised down to -55k (rather than revised up) is a little concerning here.
- Overall the data is on the soft side.
- GBPUSD fell around 15 pips on the release but didn't challenge its overnight lows.
EURJPY TECHS: Pierces Resistance
- RES 4: 167.17 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10 High Nov 6 ‘24
- RES 1: 165.45 Intraday high
- PRICE: 164.85 @ 07:00 BST Jun 10
- SUP 1: 163.59 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 162.85 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 161.78 Low May 26
- SUP 4: 161.09 Low May 23 and key support
The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and the latest rally reinforces current conditions. The cross has pierced key resistance at 165.21, the May 13 high. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend and open 166.10, the Nov 6 2024 high. Key short-term support lies at 161.09, the May 23 low, where a break is required to highlight a stronger reversal. First support lies at 163.59, the 20-day EMA.
MNI: NORWAY MAY UNDERLYING CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: NORWAY MAY UNDERLYING CPI +0.2% M/M, +2.8% Y/Y
