BTP TECHS: (U5) Bullish Trend Condition

• RES 4: 122.70 2.000 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
• RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
• RES 1: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing        
• PRICE: 121.15 @ Close May 30 
• SUP 1: 120.22 20-day EMA      
• SUP 2: 119.58/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
• SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
• SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10

A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 119.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support lies at 120.22, the 20-day EMA.

Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:

• Moody's affirmed Brazil at Ba1, outlook changed to stable from positive
• S&P affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA, Stable Trend
• Morningstar DBRS confirmed Spain at A (high), Stable Trend

• RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont) 
• RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8      
• RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 91.87/89 High May 20 / 27 and key near-term resistance
• PRICE: 91.48 @ Close Jun 2
• SUP 1: 90.59 Low May 29
• SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support    
• SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)        

A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.