BTP TECHS: (U5) Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 121.73 High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 121.22 @ Close Jul 1
- SUP 1: 120.09 Low Jun 23
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish and recent weakness appears corrective. Gains in June reinforce a bull theme and maintain the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the 122.00 handle next. Key support to watch is unchanged at 118.51, the May 14 low. A clear break of this level would highlight a reversal. First support is 120.09, the Jun 23 low.
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BTP TECHS: (M5) Bull Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 122.70 2.000 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- RES 3: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 121.93 76.4% of the Dec 5 ‘24 - Mar 14 bear leg (cont)
- RES 1: 121.43 1.618 proj of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 - 9 price swing
- PRICE: 121.15 @ Close May 30
- SUP 1: 120.22 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 119.58/00 50-day EMA / Low May 14
- SUP 3: 118.76/09 Low Apr 15 / 14
- SUP 4: 117.28 Low Apr 10
A bull cycle in BTP futures remains intact and last week’s gains reinforce current conditions. Key resistance and the bull trigger at 120.72, the May 8 high, has been cleared. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend and opens 121.43 next, a Fibonacci projection. Key support to watch lies at 119.58, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the average would signal scope for a deeper retracement. First support lies at 120.22, the 20-day EMA.
RATINGS: Mostly Affirmations On Friday, Brazil Moved To Stable At Moody’s
Sovereign rating reviews of note from after hours on Friday include:
- Moody's affirmed Brazil at Ba1, outlook changed to stable from positive
- S&P affirmed Lithuania at A; Outlook Stable
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Germany at AAA, Stable Trend
- Morningstar DBRS confirmed Spain at A (high), Stable Trend
GILT TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 92.53 High May 8 (cont)
- RES 3: 92.40 Low May 8
- RES 2: 92.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 91.87/89 High May 20 / 27 and key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 91.48 @ Close Jun 2
- SUP 1: 90.59 Low May 29
- SUP 2: 90.11 Low May 22 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 90.00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 89.68 Low Jan 15 (cont)
A bear cycle in Gilt futures remains in play. The contract has recovered from its recent lows - gains are considered corrective and this is allowing a short-term oversold condition to unwind. The bear trigger has been defined at 90.11, the May 22 low. Key short-term resistance to watch is 91.87, the May 20 high. It has been pierced, a clear break of this level is required to highlight a stronger reversal.
