BTP TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present
- RES 4: 122.71 2.764proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 3: 122.35 2.500 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 21 price swing
- RES 2: 122.00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 120.53/121.73 20-day EMA / High Jun 13 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 120.49 @ Close Jul 17
- SUP 1: 119.84 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 119.48 Low May 26
- SUP 3: 118.87 Low May 21
- SUP 4: 118.51 Low May 14 and key support
The trend condition in BTP futures is unchanged, it remains bullish. However, a corrective cycle has resulted in a breach of support at 120.09, the Jul 23 low. The break signals scope for a deeper retracement, potentially towards 118.87, the May 21 low. On the upside, key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 121.73, the Jun 13 high. Initial resistance to watch is 120.53, the 20-day EMA.
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EURGBP TECHS: Fresh Short-Term Cycle High
- RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21
- RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
- RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24
- RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.8548 @ 07:04 BST Jun 18
- SUP 1: 0.8498/8454 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support
A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains plus this week’s extension, reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8454, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.
UK DATA: Unrounded CPI
- Headline 3.36%Y/Y in May (3.53% in April)
- Core 3.54%Y/Y in May (3.83% in April)
- Services 4.68%Y/Y in May (5.42% in April)
- NEIG 1.57%Y/Y in May (1.08% in April)
- Energy -1.68%Y/Y in May (-0.94% in April)
- Food, alcohol, tobacco 4.68%Y/Y in May (4.01% in April)
MNI: UK MAY CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y
- MNI: UK MAY CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y
- UK MAY CORE CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.5% Y/Y
- UK MAY RPI +0.2% M/M, +4.3% Y/Y
- UK MAY SERVICES CPI -0.1% M/M, +4.7% Y/Y
