BTP TECHS: (U5) Bear Threat Remains Present

• RES 4: 0.8624 High Apr 21    
• RES 3: 0.8592 61.8% retracement of the Apr 11 - May 29 downleg
• RES 2: 0.8566 High Apr 24 
• RES 1: 0.8560 Intraday high 
• PRICE: 0.8548 @ 07:04 BST Jun 18
• SUP 1: 0.8498/8454 Low Jun 16 / 50-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 0.8407/8356 Low Jun 4 / Low May 29 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8327 1.382 proj of the Apr 11 - 16 - 21 price swing
• SUP 4: 0.8316 Low Mar 28 and a key support

A bullish theme in EURGBP remains intact and last week’s gains plus this week’s extension, reinforce current conditions. The cross remains above the 50-day EMA and the breach of the average highlights a stronger reversal. This signals scope for a climb towards 0.8592, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.8454, the 50-day EMA. Clearance of this level would highlight a possible reversal.

• Headline 3.36%Y/Y in May (3.53% in April)
• Core 3.54%Y/Y in May (3.83% in April)
• Services 4.68%Y/Y in May (5.42% in April)
• NEIG 1.57%Y/Y in May (1.08% in April)
• Energy -1.68%Y/Y in May (-0.94% in April)
• Food, alcohol, tobacco 4.68%Y/Y in May (4.01% in April)

• MNI: UK MAY CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.4% Y/Y
• UK MAY CORE CPI +0.2% M/M, +3.5% Y/Y
• UK MAY RPI +0.2% M/M, +4.3% Y/Y
• UK MAY SERVICES CPI -0.1% M/M, +4.7% Y/Y