JGBS: Twist-Steepener, US Tariff Impact In Trade Data, Natl CPI Tomorrow

• RES 4: 1.1783 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 3: 1.1696 1.618 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 27 price swing
• RES 2: 1.1685 76.4% retracement of the Jan ‘21 - Sep ‘22 downleg
• RES 1: 1.1631 High Jun 12
• PRICE: 1.1563 @ 06:01 BST Jun 17
• SUP 1: 1.1419 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 1.1278/1.1210 50-day EMA and a pivot level / Low May 29
• SUP 3: 1.1131 Low May 16 
• SUP 4: 1.1065 Low May 12 and a reversal trigger 

The trend set-up in EURUSD remains bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. A key resistance at 1.1573, the Apr 21 high, has been breached. This strengthens the bullish theme and confirms a resumption of this year's uptrend. Sights are on 1.1696 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support is at 1.1419, the 20-day EMA. The 50-day EMA lies at 1.1278. Short-term weakness is considered corrective.

Gold prices are off the intraday low of $3374.18/oz to be up 0.2% to $3393.1 and have traded in a relatively narrow range today. They reached a high of $3403.31 early in the session following US President Trump comments that Iran should have signed a nuclear deal when it had the chance and that people should evacuate Tehran. He will leave the G7 meeting early to return to Washington to discuss the Iran-Israel situation. 

• Bullion has found some support from a slightly lower US dollar and US yields.
• Citibank believes that weaker demand and Fed rate cuts will drive gold prices back below $3000/oz over coming quarters, according to Bloomberg.
• Silver is 0.3% higher today at $36.43 to be up 10.5% in June, reinforcing the bullish trend. It is off its intraday low of $36.15. It continues to trade between initial support at $34.84, 20-day EMA, and resistance at $36.89, 9 June high.
• Equities are generally lower with the Hang Seng down 0.1%, S&P e-mini -0.4% but Nikkei up 0.5%. Oil prices are higher with WTI +0.8% to $72.33/bbl. Copper is down 0.4%.
• Later US May retail sales, trade prices, IP, April business inventories and NAHB June housing index are released but the attention is on Wednesday’s FOMC decision and outlook. The euro area/German June ZEW also print today. 

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.06 50.0% retracement of the Jun 13 - 16 downleg
• PRICE: 130.49 @ 10:12 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 130.17 Low Jun 16              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

Bund futures traded lower Monday, extending the reversal from Friday’s session high. For now, the move down is considered corrective and key short-term support to watch lies at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. A break of this level would highlight a stronger reversal and undermine the bullish theme. Key short-term resistance and the bull trigger, has been defined at 131.95, the Jun 13 high.