US: Trump Considering Firing Fed's Cook for Cause, According to Sources
"*TRUMP CONSIDERING FIRING LISA COOK FOR CAUSE: WSJ" - bbg
"President Trump has told aides he is considering attempting to fire a Biden-appointed Federal Reserve governor after one of his housing officials accused her of mortgage fraud, according to a senior White House official and another person familiar with the matter.
"The Justice Department is probing similar fraud claims against two of the president's most vocal Democratic critics, opening investigations into New York Attorney General Letitia James and Sen. Adam Schiff of California. Attorney General Pam Bondi authorized Ed Martin, head of a working group tasked with reviewing cases against Trump, to use grand juries in Virginia and Maryland to probe separate allegations of mortgage fraud involving Schiff and James, according to a person familiar with the matter."
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GILTS: Two Gilt lines worth £21mln to be Cancelled Due to Donation
"*UK'S DEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE TO CANCEL TWO GILTS DUE TO DONATION" - bbg
Full DMO release on that is here, it's the 4⅛% Treasury Gilt 2027 and 0⅜% Index-linked Treasury Gilt 2062 that are to be cancelled, with a £14mln and £7.8mln nominal holding per line. The cancellation is as a result of "a donation to the Donations and Bequests Account made during the financial year ending 31 March 2025": https://www.dmo.gov.uk/media/hicb4is2/sa210725.pdf
US DATA: Leading Economic Indicators Continue To Point To Weak Industrial Growth
June's Conference Board US Leading Economic Index (LEI) fell by 0.3% M/M as expected in June, pulling back from 0.0% prior (upward rev from -0.1%).
- This index has been negative the vast majority of the time for the last few years despite solid economic growth measured by GDP, so we take its signal of outright economic dynamics with some skepticism. Indeed we take the LEI mainly as a signal of manufacturing momentum as it is extremely heavily weighted toward cyclicality in manufacturing, and in this regard the pullback the last few months suggests only a limited industrial recovery over the rest of the year.
- The composition of the latest negative reading is broadly weak however: our own categorization of the LEI components point to only one positive segment: financial conditions (+0.2pp contribution) which exactly offset weaker manufacturing (-0.2pp, on ISM New Orders and Core Capital Goods orders). In turn the financial conditions reading is almost entirely stock driven by stock prices, though rate spreads and the leading credit index were both positive as well.
- From a broader economic perspective, we take note of the pullback in consumer activity in the LEI (composed of Consumer Goods Manuf New Orders, Avg Consumer Exp) which while recovering from April's extreme confidence-driven lows remains soft in part due to a tepid recovery in new orders for consumer goods.
MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +6
- MNI: BOC OUTLOOK SURVEY: FUTURE SALES GROWTH BALANCE OF OPINION +6
- BANK OF CANADA BUSINESS OUTLOOK SURVEY OVERALL INDICATOR -2.42
- BOC: CONSUMERS SEE INFLATION AT 3.82% NOW, 4.04% IN 1 YEAR
