MNI SARB Preview - Jan 2026: Cut Hangs In Balance

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Executive Summary:

• The SARB will decide between a hold and a 25bp cut, with consensus almost evenly split.
• Many analysts expect the SARB to pause amid a slight upturn in CPI inflation.
• However, the outlook remains benign and underlying price pressures appear contained.

The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) is expected to decide between a 25bp cut to the repo rate and delaying the move until later in the year, with the decision seen as a very close call. When this preview went to print, analysts polled by Bloomberg were evenly split between a cut and a hold. While an increasingly benign inflation outlook and contained underlying price pressures could prompt central bankers to reduce borrowing costs, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) may as well demonstrate an on-brand cautious stance and choose to dose interest-rate cuts more conservatively. In our view, the decision is finely balanced. If the SARB decides to stand pat, however, it should be merely a brief pause in its easing cycle.