MNI INTERVIEW:Canada Must Bulk Up, Aid US To Keep Arctic Stake

Canada's hopes for keeping control over its share of the Arctic rest on cooperating with the United States and bulking up its own capacity to monitor and rebuff moves by Russia, a military scholar and government adviser told MNI.

“In Canada we believe the Arctic is sort of this big zone of peace, and this is the era of Arctic competition and Arctic realism," Christian Leuprecht, professor at the Royal Military College of Canada, said in an interview after testifying to a parliamentary committee. "We need to put aside all the things we believe as Canadians about the Arctic.”

The Arctic today resembles Afghanistan in the 19th century as a region where major powers find it easiest to show their muscle, Leuprecht said, also mentioning China as a potential competitor. Other nations at risk of becoming "collateral damage" include Norway, Denmark, Iceland and perhaps the U.K., he said.

Canada's challenge is acute because it lacks the economic might to secure a region larger than Europe, a coastline of almost 170,000 kilometers and a local population less than 200,000, he said. 

MAJOR UPGRADES NEEDED

“We’re never going to be able to do this alone,” Leuprecht said.  

The most likely scenario is working with the U.S. while NATO may have some role in securing the part of the Arctic more tied to Europe, he said. In either case Canada's military needs a major boost.

“We don’t have years to make that decision, we have to make those decisions now, in terms of radar, air capacity capabilities, as well as surface and submarine capabilities,” Leuprecht said. “This is the decision that we face. Are we going to let the U.S. do it alone, or are we going to work with the U.S. to confront those threats?”

Leuprecht noted that Canada has been taking its time on a contract to replace its ageing submarine fleet, suggesting the government doesn't see any imminent threat.

Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to more than double military spending to 5% of GDP in the next few years, while cutting staffing in the federal civil service by about 10%. Canada has among the most fiscal room across industrialized nations for fiscal expansion according to the IMF. 

U.S. STAYING IN NATO

“If we’re going to have more NATO in the Arctic to counter-balance U.S. influence, that means we are going to have to provide real capabilities, and much more than what we currently have.”

Asked if NATO itself is at risk because of U.S. moves around Greenland, Leuprecht is skeptical things will go that far. 

“I’ve never believed this hypothesis that the Americans want out of NATO: Nowhere else in the world does the U.S. invest less in defense and get a higher rate of return,” he said. 

“The U.S. is going to be doing less for its allies, and it’s only going to be doing what is it absolutely must when interests are converging.”