EURJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish

Germany looks to hold an auction and Italy a buyback today. Spain and France look to hold conventional auctions tomorrow while Belgium is scheduled to hold an ORI auction Friday. We pencil in estimated gross issuance for the week of E24.6bln, down from E31.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Supply Daily publication with a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of Q3 issuance plans, click here.

• Germany will kick off issuance for the quarter today with a E6bln auction to launch the new 10-year Aug-35 Bund ISIN (DE000BU2Z056). Note that the size of this auction was increased by E1bln from E5bln in the Q3 calendar update. The E6bln auction size is the largest for a non-Schatz German auction since 2011 (and the largest of any German auction since September 2023). This is also the only E6bln German auction scheduled for Q3. The coupon will be announced this morning.
• This morning, Italy will hold a buyback for up to E5bln via the Banca d’Italia. The MEF will look to buyback the following: the 3.10% Aug-26 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005607269), the 3.80% Apr-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005538597), the 1.60% Jun-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005170839), the 1.25% Dec-26 BTP (ISIN: IT0005210650) and the Apr-26 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005428617).
  • Note that this is in addition to the E16.4bln redemption of the formerly 5-year BTP that was due on 1 July.

• RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3  
• RES 3: 148.65 High May 12 and a reversal trigger
• RES 2: 146.19/148.03 High Jun 24 / 23
• RES 1: 144.97 50-day EMA  
• PRICE: 143.77 @ 07:02 BST Jul 2
• SUP 1: 142.68 Low Jul 1   
• SUP 2: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 141.96 76.4% retracement of the Apr 22 - May 12 upleg
• SUP 4: 141.49 Low Apr 23    

A bear threat in USDJPY remains intact and Tuesday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The Jun 23 shooting star candle formation highlighted a reversal of the recent recovery and this signal remains in play. Note too that price has traded through the 20- and 50-day EMAs. A clear break of the EMAs strengthens a bearish threat and opens 142.12, the May 27 low and a key short-term support. Initial resistance is at 144.97, the 50-day EMA.

• RES 4: 94.57 2.236 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing 
• RES 3: 94.15 2.000 proj of the May 22 - 27 - 29 price swing     
• RES 2: 94.00 Round number resistance
• RES 1: 93.76 Intraday high
• PRICE: 93.54 @ Close BST Jul 1
• SUP 1: 92.78 20-day EMA 
• SUP 2: 92.23 Low Jun 16 and a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 91.56 Low Jun 9   
• SUP 4: 91.44 Low Jun 8        

A bull cycle in Gilt futures remains in play and recent weakness has proved to be a correction. Yesterday’s gains resulted in a print above 93.68, the Jun 13 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that started May 22. This would open 94.00. Key short-term support has been defined 92.23, the Jun 16 low. First support lies at 92.78, the 20-day EMA.