USDJPY TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 159.45 High Jul 12
- RES 3: 159.26 0.618 proj of the Sep 16 - Nov 15 - Dec 3 price swing
- RES 2: 158.08/87 High Jan 15 / 10 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 156.82 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - 21 bear leg
- PRICE: 156.53 @ 06:50 GMT Jan 23
- SUP 1: 155.08/154.78 50-day EMA / Low Jan 21
- SUP 2: 154.64 Trendline support drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 low
- SUP 3: 153.16 Low Dec 17
- SUP 4: 152.46 Low Dec 13
The trend condition in USDJPYremains bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 155.08, the 50-day EMA, and 154.64, a trendline drawn from the Sep 16 ‘24 high. A clear breach of both levels would highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 158.87, the Jan 10 high.
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BTP TECHS: (H5) Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 123.83 1.764 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 3: 123.43 1.618 proj of the Nov 7 - 15 - 18 price swing
- RES 2: 122.85/123.34 High Dec 12 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 121.28 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 120.16 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 120.10 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 119.67 61.8% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
- SUP 3: 119.11 Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: 118.80 76.4% retracement of the Nov 7 - Dec 11 bull cycle
A corrective cycle in BTP futures has resulted in a pullback from its recent highs and the Dec 19 gap lower highlights potential for a continuation near-term. The contract has breached the 20-day EMA and sights are on 119.67, a Fibonacci retracement point. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 123.34, the Dec 11 high. Initial firm resistance is seen at 121.28, the 20-day EMA.
EUROZONE T-BILL ISSUANCE: W/C December 23, 2024
Greece sold bills this week. Issuance was E0.5bln in first round operations, down from E6.6bln last week.
For more on future auctions see the full MNI Eurozone/UK T-bill auction calendar here.
(H5) Impulsive Bear Cycle Is Intact
- RES 4: 94.15 20-day EMA
- RES 3: 93.64 High Dec 17
- RES 2: 93.38 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 93.09 High Dec 21
- PRICE: 92.48 @ Close Dec 23
- SUP 1: 91.87 Low Dec 19
- SUP 2: 91.73 4.236 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 3: 91.58 4.382 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
- SUP 4: 91.45 4.500 proj of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing
A strong bearish theme in Gilt futures remains in play and last week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move down has resulted in a breach of key short-term support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. The break of this level highlights a stronger reversal. Sights are on 91.73, a 4.236 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial firm resistance is at 93.64, the Dec 17 high. Short-term gains are considered corrective.
