USDCAD TECHS: Trend Signals Still Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4296 High Apr 7
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4029 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4016 High May 12 / 13
- PRICE: 1.3969 @ 08:00 BST May 15
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
USDCAD is unchanged and maintains a firmer short-term tone. Despite the latest move higher, the trend condition remains bearish and the move higher is considered corrective. A fresh cycle low on May 6 reinforces the bearish theme. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance is seen at 1.4029, the 50-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Maintains A Bullish Tone
- RES 4: 0.6428 50.0% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.6409 High Dec 9 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.6389 High Apr 3 and a reversal trigger
- RES 1: 0.6374 3.0% 10-dma envelope
- PRICE: 0.6359 @ 07:59 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 0.6232 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6116/0.5915 Low 10 / Low Apr 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.5830 2.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.5729 2.236 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
AUDUSD maintains a short-term bullish tone following a strong reversal last week. The pair has breached the 50-day EMA, at 0.6267. The break of this average strengthens the reversal and signals scope for a continuation higher, towards 0.6389, the Apr 3 high and the next important resistance. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 0.5915, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. First support lies at 0.6232, the 20-day EMA.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.60/91.86, small upside risk on the mid, given the bid in Sonias.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
Moves in Estoxx Futures are tiny in early trade, similar to Yesterday.
VGM5 is back to circa flat, small downside risks on these calls.
- Calls: Estox 50: +0.07%, Dax: +0.67%, CAC: -0.43%, FTSE +0.26%, SMI +0.10%.
