EURJPY TECHS: Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 167.40 61.8% retracement of the Jul 11 - Aug ‘24 sell-off
- RES 3: 166.69 High Oct 31 2024 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 166.10/67 High Nov 6 / 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 1: 165.43 High Nov 8 2024
- PRICE: 164.55 @ 07:19 GMT May 14
- SUP 1: 163.00 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 162.10/161.60 50-day EMA / Low May 6
- SUP 3: 160.99 Low Apr 22
- SUP 4: 159.48 Low Apr 9
A bullish theme in EURJPY strengthened Tuesday with the break above the late Dec high. The cross is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains and the latest climb paves the way for a move towards 165.43, the Nov 8 ‘24 high. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Support to watch is 162.10, the 50-day EMA. A break of this level is required to signal a possible reversal.
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GOLD TECHS: Northbound
- RES 4: $3347.7 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3300.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 2: $3291.8 - 1.00 proj of the Feb 28 - Apr 3 - Apr 7 price swing
- RES 1: $3245.5 - High Apr 11
- PRICE: $3229.7 @ 07:18 BST Apr 14
- SUP 1: $3045.1 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2956.7/2960.9 - Low Apr 7 / 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2880.3 - Low Mar 10
- SUP 4: $2832.7 - Low Feb 28
The trend condition in Gold remains bullish and last week’s rally confirms and reinforces this condition. The yellow metal has traded through $3167.8, the Apr 3 high, to resume the primary uptrend and trade to fresh all-time highs. Moving average studies are unchanged, they remain in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support lies at 3063.4, the 20-day EMA. Sights are on 3291.8, a Fibonacci projection.
BTP TECHS: (M5) Monitoring Resistance
- RES 4: 120.12 High High Mar 4
- RES 3: 119.31 Low Mar 4 and a gap high on the daily chart
- RES 2: 119.07 High Apr 4 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 118.37 High Apr 11
- PRICE: 118.10 @ Close Apr 11
- SUP 1: 117.28/116.06 Low Apr 10 / 9 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 115.75 Low Mar 14 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 115.53 0.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 14 - Apr 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 115.00 Round number support
BTP futures rallied sharply higher from last Wednesday’s low. However, the latest move down highlights a potential reversal of the Mar 14 - Apr 4 bull cycle. If correct, the move down exposes key support at 115.75, the Mar 14 low and a bear trigger. A break of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 119.07, the Apr 8 high. Clearance of this level would be a bullish reversal development.
BUNDS: A steadier Overnight session,US 10yr Yield trades around 4.50%
- A calmer overnight session for Bund compared to the multiple Volatile sessions seen of late, the contract trades in the red but remains well within Friday's wide 150 ticks traded range.
- Small resistance is at today's high of 130.75, and first support comes at 129.92, Friday's low.
- US Tnotes saw the Yield jumped towards 4.60%, printed a 4.5864% high on Friday, and despite the recovery in Futures, the Yield is still close to the 4.50% mark going into the European session.
- It is a lighter Week on the Data front, main focus for Europe will be on the ECB Thursday, expected to cut rates by 25bps given the Tariff Risks.
- Today only sees, US NY Fed 1yr Inflation Expectations.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Waller, Harker.
