USDCAD TECHS: Trend Remains Bearish And Gains Appear Corrective

Norwegian bankruptcies rose 22.5% Y/Y in the four quarters to Q1 2025, a sign that high interest rates are weighing on mainland activity and employment. Markets price almost 20bps of easing through the June decision, placing focus on whether any guidance for a cut will be provided on May 8.

• A reminder that in her April 8 speech, Governor Wolden-Bache noted that “considerable weight shall be given to employment – also at times when inflation deviates significantly from the target”.
• Against this backdrop, hard labour market data has shown some signs of softening but continues to hold up reasonably well overall. The LFS trend unemployment rate was 4.1% in March, steady against February’s 2-tenth upwardly revised reading.
• Employment growth was -0.8% M/M (vs -0.1% prior), corresponding to a 3m/3m rate of 0.1% (vs -0.4% prior). The Q1 Regional Network Survey indicated Q1 employment growth at 0.2%.

• RES 4: 1.4415 High Apr 1
• RES 3: 1.4296 High Apr 7 
• RES 2: 1.4131 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.3906/3987 High Apr 17 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 1.3881 @ 08:01 BST Apr 28
• SUP 1: 1.3781 Low Apr 21 and the bear trigger 
• SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
• SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 2024
• SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24 

The trend condition in USDCAD is unchanged, it remains bearish. A fresh cycle low last Monday highlights a resumption of the downtrend and signals scope for a continuation near-term. Potential is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Moving average studies are in a bear mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. First resistance to watch is 1.3987, the 20-day EMA

• TYM5 106.50p, bought for 2 in 15k.

Recall earlier that the 107.00p, was also bought for 2 in 15k.