USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3674/3776 20- and 50-day EMA values
- PRICE: 1.3577 @ 08:15 BST Jul 4
- SUP 1: 1.3557 Low Jul 03
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
The trend needle in USDCAD points south and this week’s move down reinforces current conditions. S/T gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger is 1.3540, Jun 16 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open 1.3503, a Fibonacci projection. Pivot resistance is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3776. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger recovery.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Italy Dual-Tranche New 5y / 10y Green Tap: Books Open
- Size: EUR Benchmark, MNI expects E7-10bln
- Guidance: BTPS 2.95% 07/2030 +10bps area
- Maturity: 1 October 2030
- Coupon: Fixed, S/A ACT/ACT. (short first)
- ISIN: TBA
- Size: E5bln WNG
- Guidance: BTPS 0.95% 03/2037 +9bps area
- Maturity: 30 October 2037
- Coupon: 4.05%, S/A ACT/ACT (42 days accrued)
- ISIN: IT0005596470
- Issuer: Republic of Italy
- Ratings: Baa3/BBB+/BBB/BBBH/BBB+ (pos/stab/pos/pos/stab) by Moody's/S&P/Fitch/DBRS/Scope
- Settlement: 11 June 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNPP / BofA / CACIB / Santander / Societe Generale
- Format: Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali (RegS in dematerialised book entry form), 144A eligible, CACs
- Denoms: EUR 1k + EUR 1k
- Timing: Books open, Today's business
USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.3938/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
- RES 1: 1.3829 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3720 @ 08:12 BST Jun 4
- SUP 1: 1.3675 Low Jun 2
- SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish. The pair traded lower Monday and pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3938 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3829.
BONDS: EUREX PACE ROLL (Updated)
- As mentioned in the Bund opening comment, the June expiry is still front Month, but expect for September to be at the end of Day.
- Eurex spreads have dominated at the start of the Week, which makes sense given the Busy Week still ahead.
ROLL PACE (as of Yesterday):
- Buxl: 66%.
- Bund: 68%.
- Bobl: 67%.
- Schatz: 73%.
- BTP: 70%.
- BTS: 76%.
- OAT: 67%.
