USDCAD TECHS: Trend Outlook Remains Bearish

• Size: EUR Benchmark, MNI expects E7-10bln
• Guidance: BTPS 2.95% 07/2030 +10bps area
• Maturity: 1 October 2030
• Coupon: Fixed, S/A ACT/ACT. (short first)
• ISIN: TBA

• Size: E5bln WNG
• Guidance: BTPS 0.95% 03/2037 +9bps area
• Maturity: 30 October 2037
• Coupon: 4.05%, S/A ACT/ACT (42 days accrued)
• ISIN: IT0005596470

• Issuer: Republic of Italy
• Ratings: Baa3/BBB+/BBB/BBBH/BBB+ (pos/stab/pos/pos/stab) by Moody's/S&P/Fitch/DBRS/Scope
• Settlement: 11 June 2025 (T+5)
• Bookrunners: Barclays (DM/B&D) / BNPP / BofA / CACIB / Santander / Societe Generale
• Format: Buoni del Tesoro Poliennali (RegS in dematerialised book entry form), 144A eligible, CACs
• Denoms: EUR 1k + EUR 1k
• Timing: Books open, Today's business

• RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
• RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
• RES 2: 1.3938/1.4016 50-day EMA / High May 12 and 13
• RES 1: 1.3829 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3720 @ 08:12 BST Jun 4 
• SUP 1: 1.3675 Low Jun 2      
• SUP 2: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
• SUP 3: 1.3579 1.500 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing 

The trend structure in USDCAD remains bearish. The pair traded lower Monday and pierced support at 1.3686, the May 26 low and bear trigger. A clear breach of this short-term support would confirm a resumption of the downtrend and maintain the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This would open 1.3643, the Oct 9 2024 low. Resistance at the 50-day EMA is at 1.3938 - a key level. The 20- EMA is at 1.3829.

• As mentioned in the Bund opening comment, the June expiry is still front Month, but expect for September to be at the end of Day.
• Eurex spreads have dominated at the start of the Week, which makes sense given the Busy Week still ahead.

ROLL PACE (as of Yesterday):

• Buxl: 66%.
• Bund: 68%.
• Bobl: 67%.
• Schatz: 73%.
• BTP: 70%.
• BTS: 76%.
• OAT: 67%.