USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
- RES 4: 151.30 High Mar 3
- RES 3: 149.34/151.21 50-day EMA / High Mar 28 and reversal trigger
- RES 2: 147.35 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 144.64/146.54 High Apr 11 / Low Mar 11 recent breakout point
- PRICE: 143.13 @ 06:45 BST Apr 15
- SUP 1: 142.07 Low Apr 11
- SUP 2: 141.65 Low Sep 30 ‘24
- SUP 3: 141.00 1.236 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 140.32 Low Sep 17 ‘24
The trend condition in USDJPY is unchanged, it remains bearish and last Friday’s fresh cycle low reinforces this theme. The move down confirms a resumption of the downtrend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 141.65 next, the Sep 30 ‘24 low. Initial firm resistance to watch is the 20-day EMA, at 147.35.
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FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
