EURJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• Crude has rallied in US hours on Tuesday, as ongoing concerns over the impact of sanctions against Russian have offset oversupply fears.
• WTI Dec 25 is up by 1.4% at $60.8/bbl.
• The grace period before the introduction of sanctions on Russia’s Rosneft and Lukoil ends Nov 21 as the market weighs the impact on global flows. The discount on Russia’s Urals benchmark is the highest since June 2023, according to Bloomberg.
• For WTI futures, resistance to watch is $62.59, the Oct 24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would signal scope for a stronger correction.
• On the downside, key support and the bear trigger remains at $55.96, the Oct 20 low.
• Meanwhile, previous metals have rebounded today, with spot gold currently up by 0.9% at $4,080/oz and silver 1.8% higher at $51.1/oz.
• Goldman Sachs said this week that gold could hit $4,900 by the end of 2026, driven by further heavy buying from central banks and private investors. Price could potentially go even higher if the private investors diversification theme gains more traction.
• Meanwhile, UBS said recently that gold could hit $5,000 in 2026 or 2027.
• For gold, recent gains suggest that the correction between Oct 20 and 28 was a correction that allowed an overbought condition to unwind.
• The short-term bull trigger has been defined at $4,245.23, the Nov 13 high. Key support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at $3,937.8.

• Initially, the US dollar was under pressure following the release of a weaker-than-expected US ADP jobs release. However, given the uncertainty surrounding further US data this week, the greenback subsequently recovered, as market participants assess whether data surprises might be viewed through a policy or growth lens.
• The Japanese yen remained immune to the recent weakness for major equity benchmarks and the more forceful verbal warnings from Japanese officials on one-sided adjustments for the currency.
• Additionally, the ongoing tensions between Japan/China, disappointing Q3 GDP data and fiscal related uncertainty continues to provide a pessimistic domestic backdrop, helping USDJPY reach fresh cycle highs above 155.50.
• In similar vein, the Swiss Franc underperforms today, assisting EURCHF further away from the recent false break below medium-term support at 0.9200.
• The Canadian dollar is notably outperforming today, allowing USDCAD to gather downside momentum below the 1.40 mark and breach last week’s lows. Spot has tested the 50-day EMA, intersecting around 1.3970, of which the pair has not closed below since September.
• Price action bolsters the short-term bearish outlook, as the pair continues to trade inside a bull channel drawn from the Jul 23 low. The respect of the channel top on Nov 11, and the subsequent move south highlights scope for a bear extension towards the base of the channel at 1.3893.
• Australian wage price index data will cross Wednesday, before UK CPI for October. Later in the session, the FOMC minutes are due.

• RES 4: 156.75 High Jan 23 
• RES 3: 155.89 High Feb 3
• RES 2: 155.53 2.00 projection of the Sep 17 - 26 - Oct 1 price swing
• RES 1: 155.50 High Nov 18
• PRICE: 155.06 @ 16:41 GMT Nov 18
• SUP 1: 153.49 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 152.82 Low Nov 7   
• SUP 3: 151.58 50-day EMA  
• SUP 4: 150.47 Low Oct 21 

USDJPY traded higher again Tuesday, confirming a resumption of the uptrend and an extension of recent gains. The 155.00 handle has been cleared and sights are on 155.53 next, a Fibonacci projection. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, this continues to highlight a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support to watch is 153.49, the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a corrective pullback.