EURGBP TECHS: Trend Needle Points North

• RES 4: 180.00 Psychological round number 
• RES 3: 179.50 Top of a bull channel drawn from the Feb 28 low
• RES 2: 178.94 1.236 proj of the Jul 31 - Sep 29 - Oct 2 price swing
• RES 1: 178.00 Round number resistance 
• PRICE: 177.85 @ 16:22 BST Oct 8
• SUP 1: 175.13 Hgh Sep 29
• SUP 2: 174.03 20-day EMA  
• SUP 3: 173.24 High Oct 3 and a gap low on the daily chart   
• SUP 4: 172.27 Low Oct 2 and a key medium-term support  

The trend set-up in EURJPY remains bullish and fresh cycle highs this week strengthens the bull condition. The cross has cleared resistance at 175.13, the Sep 29 high, to confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend and hit all-time highs in the process. The move higher this week also marks an acceleration of the uptrend. Sights are on the 178.00 handle next. Key short-term support has been defined at 172.27, the Oct 2 low.  

• Still bid, stocks are scaling back from record (Nasdaq) or near record (SPX) highs late Wednesday, still digesting the release of the September FOMC minutes.
• Currently, the DJIA trades up 22.23 points (0.05%) at 46,623.05 vs. 46,816.28 high, S&P E-Minis up 33.5 points (0.5%) at 6795 vs. 6,802.75 record high, the Nasdaq up 204.4 points (0.9%) at 22992.02 vs. 23,019.64 record high.
• Information Technology and Industrials sector shares continued to lead gainers in late trade, semiconductor and hardware makers supporting the former: Advanced Micro Devices +10.04%, Arista Networks +8.35%, Dell Technologies +7.88% and ON Semiconductor +4.84%
• The Industrial sector was buoyed by: JB Hunt Transport Services +4.74%, Quanta Services +4.35%, Caterpillar +3.73% and Old Dominion Freight Line +3.52%.
• On the flipside, Consumer Staples and Energy sector shares underperformed ahead midday, weighing on Staples: Tyson Foods -3.30%, Bunge Global -2.31%, J M Smucker -2.26% and General Mills -2.16%. Meanwhile, APA -2.53%, Texas Pacific Land Corp -2.13%, EQT -1.82% and Coterra Energy -1.59% led decliners in the Energy sector.

• Spot gold registered another fresh all-time high of $4,059.3/oz earlier today, despite further gains in the USD index to its highest level since early August, as the ongoing US government shutdown continued to drive safe haven demand.
• Spot is currently up by 1.6% at $4,049/oz.
• TD Securities says that gold looks overbought and caution that, given the speed and magnitude of the rally since mid-August, there could be a significant unwind in the relative near-term.
• However, they ultimately remain bullish and expect gold to rise above $4,400 in H1 2026.
• From a technical perspective, a bull cycle in gold remains in play and this week’s breach of $4,000/oz further reinforces the recent uptrend. Sights are on $4,074.54 next, a Fibonacci projection.
• Similarly, silver has also rebounded sharply today, rising to a high of $49.55/oz earlier, just below the April 2011 all-time high at $49.804, before paring gains slightly.
• Currently, silver is up by 3.1% to $49.3/oz.
• Meanwhile, crude is also extending the gains seen so far this week after the smaller than expected OPEC output rise for November and despite a larger than expected US crude stock build today.
• WTI Nov 25 is up by 1.4% at $62.6/bbl.
• Despite the recovery in WTI futures from the most recent low, a bearish theme remains intact. Initial support is at $60.40, the Oct 2 low, while initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high.