BOE: Summary of Analyst Views Post-Meeting

Nov-07 17:29

Just over three quarters (16/21) of the analyst reviews that we have read expect a December rate cut. This compares to 12/21 analysts who had expected a Q4 rate cut ahead of the November meeting.
Of those who look for a December cut, RBC expects this to be the last of the cycle. 5 analysts look for a sequential cut in February, 2 analysts in Q1 (unspecified month), 2 analysts in March, 4 analysts in April and 2 analysts did not specify the timing of the second cut.
Of those who look for a February cut, NatWest Markets see this as the last in the cycle while the other 4 analysts all look for the following cut to be in April.
Terminal rate expectations haven’t shifted despite the timing shifts. The median and modal expectation remains for a 3.50% terminal rate (favoured by just under half 10/21 analysts) with a downside tail. 2/21 look for a 3.75% terminal rate, 3/21 for 3.25%, 4/21 for 3.00% and 2/21 for 2.75%.

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US: FED Reverse Repo Operation

Oct-08 17:21

RRP usage inches up to $5.231B with 14 counterparties this afternoon vs. yesterday's $4.622B (lowest level since early April 2021). Compares to this year's high usage of $460.731B on June 30.

US TSYS/SUPPLY: Review 10Y Auction Re-Open

Oct-08 17:04

Treasury futures holding narrow range (TYZ5 +.5 at 112-22, yld 4.1171%) after the $39B 10Y note auction re-open (91282CNT4) tailed: drawing 4.117% high yield vs. 4.112% WI; 2.45x bid-to-cover vs. 2.65x prior.
Peripheral stats: indirect take-up retreats to 66.80% vs. 83.13% prior; direct bidder take-up rebounds to 24.1% from 12.66% prior; primary dealer take-up 9.09% vs. 4.21% prior.
The next 10Y auction is tentatively scheduled for November 12.

FED: US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.117%; ALLOTMENT 78.38%

Oct-08 17:02

US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: HIGH YLD 4.117%; ALLOTMENT 78.38%
US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 9.09% OF COMPETITIVES
US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 24.10% OF COMPETITIVES
US TSY 9Y-10M NOTE AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 66.80% OF COMPETITIVES
US TSY 9Y-10M AUCTION: BID/CVR 2.48

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