MNI NBP Review - Nov 2025: Non-Cycle Enters Fine-Tuning Phase

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Executive Summary:

• The MPC has now delivered 25bp cuts at each of the past four meetings.
• The new macroeconomic projection amounted to a ‘goldilocks’ scenario.
• Glapiński eyes a terminal rate of ~4%; doesn’t rule out a cut in December. 

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) reduced interest rates by 25bp, bringing the reference rate to 4.25%, after flash October CPI undershot forecasts, while the NBP’s new macroeconomic projection substantiated expectations of an improvement in the medium-term inflation outlook. The decision was described as an ‘adjustment’ rather than another step in an easing cycle, despite being the fourth sequential 25bp cut. Governor Glapiński signalled that while the next move in rates will likely be another cut, but the room for monetary easing is increasingly limited and his preferred terminal rate is around 4%. His rhetoric signalled that a transition to the fine-tuning phase of the undeclared easing cycle is underway, with the rate-setting panel shifting its focus from sharp policy normalisation to ensuring that the economy remains in equilibrium.