EMISSIONS: EU End-Of-Day Carbon Summary: EUAs Rise, UKAs Fall On Week

EUAs Dec25 are on track for weekly gains of around 2% amid rising market sentiment following Germany’s Economy Minister Katharina Reiche’s confirmation on Monday of the timeline for introducing an industrial power price. UKAs Dec25 are edging down on week by around 0.62%, after prices entered overbought territory early in the week before retreating in three consecutive sessions that pushed them below the 10-day moving average. 

• EUA DEC 25 down 0.77% at 79.55 EUR/t CO2e
• UKA DEC 25 down 2.31% at 55.39 GBP/t CO2e
• TTF Gas DEC 25 down 1.1% at 31.19 EUR/MWh
• NBP Gas DEC 25 down 1.2% at 81.14 GBp/therm
• Estoxx 50 down 0.8% at 5565.8
• The latest Germany ETS CAP3 auction cleared at €79.76/ton CO2e, up 1.40% compared with the previous Germany auction at €78.66/ton CO2e according to EEX.
• TTF front month is slightly lower on the day but still within the €31/MWh to €32.9/MWh range since Oct. 9 with mild weather limiting early season heating demand.
• A medium-term uptrend in ICE EUA futures remains intact and short-term weakness is considered corrective. Note that a move down is allowing a short-term overbought trend condition to unwind. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of resistance at €80.37, the Oct 10 high and a bull trigger. This confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and opens €84.50, the Jan 30 high and a key resistance. Key support to monitor is €77.54, the 50-EMA.
• EU ETS has cut emissions from the power, heat, and industrial sectors by 50% since 2005, keeping the bloc on track for its 2030 climate targets of a 55% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions versus 1990 levels, according to EU Commission’s latest report.
• BNEF suggested that 86% of the EU’s planned emissions reductions to meet 2035 and 2040 climate targets will come from the EU ETS 1 and 2.
• Analysts said the EU Council’s agreement to allow up to 5% of international carbon credits under the 2040 target equates to around 237mn tCO2e between 2036-2040, reducing the real domestic emissions cut to about 85% versus 1990 levels.
• T&E analysis showed that EU shipping emissions in 2024 surged 13% year-on-year, reaching the highest levels since reporting began in 2018.
• E3G warned that current global action remains too slow to close the emissions gap and limit warming to 1.5 °C despite renewables deployment.