ITALY DATA: Trend In Retail Sales Remains Sluggish
The trend in Italian retail sales remains sluggish. Nominal seasonally adjusted retail sales, as reported by Bloomberg, fell 0.4% M/M after +0.7% in April. This was below any of the three analyst estimates (range -0.1% to +0.4%). Real retail sales also fell 0.5% M/M (vs +0.6% prior). On a 3m/3m basis, real retail sales have been negative for six consecutive months, printing at -0.5% in May.
- A 1.2% pullback in food sales drove the decline in May, while non-food sales were flat (vs 0.2% prior).
- ISTAT retailer sentiment has been consistently falling since November 2024, while consumer confidence has lacked a clear trend.
- Overall though, analyst expectations for a 1.1% Y/Y household consumption print in Q2 (vs 0.6% prior) seem quite optimistic.
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GILT AUCTION RESULTS: 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt
| 4.375% Mar-28 Gilt | Previous | |
| Amount | GBP4.75bln | GBP4.50bln |
| Avg yield | 4.062% | 3.834% |
| Bid-to-cover | 3.08x | 3.48x |
| Tail | 0.3bp | 0.2bp |
| Avg price | 100.803 | 101.443 |
| Low price | 100.796 | 101.438 |
| Pre-auction mid | 100.788 | 101.431 |
| Previous date | 30-Apr-25 |
US BONDS: Long End Futures are testing lows
- Very short term outlook for the USU5, for now the contract continues to find some support at this Week's extremely short Term retracement at 111.26, printed a 111.27 low on Monday, 111.29 low Yesterday, and 111.30 low Today.
- A break below that retracement level would see initial downside extension to 111.05.
(Chart source: MNI/Bloomberg).
EUROZONE DATA: Nowcasts More Optimistic Than Analyst GDP Consensus
The Bank of Italy’s Euro-coin indicator, which provides a nowcast for trend growth, was little changed at 0.26 in May (vs 0.25 in March and April). The press release notes that “its performance benefited from the growth in industrial production and from the moderate recovery in household confidence, despite being affected by the deterioration in the qualitative indicators for service firms”.
- The trend growth series strips out seasonal variations, measurement errors and short-run volatility, and has been in positive (albeit subdued) territory for the last 15 months.
- Bloomberg’s GDP Nowcast (which aims to estimate actual Q/Q growth, not trend growth) rose more notably to 0.56 in May, from 0.28 in April.
- Both nowcasts are more optimistic than current Bloomberg analyst consensus of 0.1% Q/Q GDP growth in Q2. The ECB will provide updated quarterly projections as part of tomorrow’s rate decision.
