EURJPY TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8
- RES 3: 164.90 High Dec 30 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
- RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
- RES 1: 163.55/164.19 High Apr 14 / High Mar 18 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 161.40 @ 07:31 GMT Apr 23
- SUP 1: 160.99/159.48 50-day EMA / Low Apr 9
- SUP 2: 158.30 Low Apr 7 and key support
- SUP 3: 157.02 76.4% retracement of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 155.60 Low Low Mar 4
EURJPY is in consolidation mode. The recent pullback appears corrective and trend conditions remain bullish. Key short-term support has been defined at 158.30, the low on Apr 7. A break of this level is required to signal scope for a deeper retracement. This would open 157.02, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a resumption of gains would expose 164.19, the Mar 18 high and the bull trigger. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the uptrend.
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EURGBP TECHS: Retracement Mode
- RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: 0.8378@ 06:31 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 0.8351 50-day EMA and pivot support
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
EURGBP remains in a retracement mode. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8350. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. A break of it would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8450, the Mar 11 high.
SCHATZ TECHS: (M5) Unwinding An Oversold Condition
- RES 4: 107.120 High Mar 4 and key resistance
- RES 3: 106.951 76..4% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 2: 106.847 61.8% retracement of the Mar 4 - 6 bear leg
- RES 1: 106.800 High Mar 21
- PRICE: 106.740 @ 06:08 GMT Mar 24
- SUP 1: 106.630 Low Mar 18
- SUP 2: 106.540 Low Mar 12
- SUP 3: 106.500 Low Mar 7
- SUP 4: 106.405 Low Mar 6 and the bear trigger
A bearish condition in Schatz futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The move higher has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Resistance to watch is 106.847, a Fibonacci retracement. Recent weakness resulted in a breach of key support at 106.735, the Feb 19 low. The break strengthens a bearish theme and signals scope for a deeper sell-off, towards 106.350, a Fibonacci retracement.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Events (Times GMT)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 24-Mar | 0930 | Mar | Flash PMIs |
| 24-Mar | 1800 | - | BOE's Bailey lecture on UK growth |
| 25-Mar | 1100 | Mar | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 26-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Consumer inflation report |
| 26-Mar | - | - | OBR Spring Forecasts |
| 26-Mar | 1530 | Q2 | DMO agenda for quarterly consultation |
| 27-Mar | 0830 | - | BOE's Dhingra on inflation targeting in the UK post pandemic period |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Feb | Retail Sales |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Q4 | Current account balance / GDP 2nd est |
| 28-Mar | 0700 | Jan | Trade Balance |
| 31-Mar | 0930 | Jan | BOE Lending to Individuals |
| 31-Mar | - | - | DMO Quarterly Investors/GEMM consultation |
| 01-Apr | 0001 | Mar | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 01-Apr | 0915 | - | BoE's Greene on ‘UK MP/macro conjuncture’ |
| 01-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Decision Maker Panel data |
| 03-Apr | 0930 | Mar | Services / Composite Final PMI |
