OIL: Trade Worries Continue To Weigh On Crude As April Survey Data Fall
Oil prices fell sharply on Tuesday as continued uncertainty over the progress of US trade negotiations especially with China and concerns over increased OPEC output weighed. It has worried about the impact on global energy demand since US tariffs were announced and data are starting to confirm these fears. April US consumer confidence was sharply lower yesterday following Monday’s drop in the Dallas Fed index. China’s PMI out today will also be monitored closely. The USD index was 0.2% higher.
- WTI fell 3.1% to $60.14/bbl, close to the intraday low, and still above support at $58.29. The bear trigger is at $54.67. It is now down 15.2% in April and 14.3% this year. The benchmark has started today a bit higher at $60.24.
- Brent was 2.8% lower at $63.28/bbl after briefly falling below $63 to reach $62.93. It is now down 14.8% this month. This reinforces the downward trend in the benchmark but it continued to hold above initial support at $61.51/bbl. The bear trigger is at $58.00. Initial resistance is at $68.67, 50-day EMA.
- Bloomberg reported that there was a US crude inventory build of 3.8mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Products continued to destock with gasoline down 3.1mn and distillate 2.5mn. The official EIA data is out on Wednesday.
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JGBS: Futures Stronger Overnight On Friday With Risk-Off
In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed stronger, +19 compared to settlement levels, after a strong risk-off tone gathered momentum in the weekend ahead of this week's Trump Tariff "Liberation Day" rollout on April 2, not to mention next Friday's employment data for March.
- Friday morning's drop in US Consumer Sentiment and rising inflation expectations, as reported by the University of Michigan, added to concerns.
- The S&P closed 2% lower while treasury yields dropped sharply across the curve. The US 10-year yield closed 11bps lower at 4.25%, having threatened to break out through the top side of the trading range, the previous day.
- TYM5 has reopened today richer at 111-15, +0-08+ from closing levels.
- While curves have scaled off steepest levels since early Jan'22 (short-end lagging), projected rate cuts through mid-2025 have gained significantly on Friday vs. previous levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -5.2bp (-3.9bp), Jun'25 at -21.8bp (-17.2bp), Jul'25 at -36.5bp (-28.5bp), Sep'25 -52bp (-43.5bp).
- “US Treasuries have outperformed stocks this quarter, heading for a more than 2% gain, while the equity benchmark S&P 500 fell about 5%. It marks the first time since the onset of the pandemic in March 2020 that stocks fell, and bonds rose in a three-month period.” (per BBG).
- On the local calendar, we have Feb preliminary industrial production, along with Feb retail sales and Feb housing starts. There is also 2-year supply.
CHINA: PMI Preview
- This week sees China release both the official PMI, which focuses on larger, state-owned enterprises, and the Caixin PMI, which emphasizes smaller, private, and export-oriented companies.
- The official manufacturing PMI in February barely stayed positive at 50.2 but was an improvement on January. Market expectations for the March result see a modest increase to 50.4 as the effects of the Lunar New Year holidays fade.
- The services PMI too is expecting a modest increase from +50.4 to +50.6. Services PMI has been consistently (albeit marginally) above 50 throughout the last year, a positive sign for the domestic economy.
- The Caixin PMI’s were somewhat higher in February with Manufacturing PMI at +50.8. Current consensus is for no change in March whilst Services PMI is forecast to rise to +51.5 from +51.4.
CROSS ASSET: Risk Sentiment Starts The Week Softer Amid Weekend News Flow
Risk sentiment has started this week much the same way as it ended last week, with downside pressures evident. Weekend news flow wasn't positive from a risk appetite standpoint. US equity futures are down, but away from worst levels. Eminis last off 0.50%, but still sub 5600. Yen is outperforming in the FX space, up nearly 0.30% versus the USD, while NZD is down 0.20%. US bond futures are higher as well, while gold has hit a fresh record high near $3098.
- Trump stated on Saturday little concern around rising foreign car prices: ""I couldn't care less. I hope [foreign automakers] raise their prices, because if they do, people are going to buy American-made cars. We have plenty," he said in the interview with NBC's Kristen Welker that aired Saturday." (see this link). This suggests some comfort around fall out from tariffs from the Trump administration.
- Trump also expressed anger at Russia President Putin and threatened oil penalties: " Trump said he was “very angry” about Putin’s recent comments suggesting ways to install new leadership in Ukraine and sideline President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, NBC reported, citing a phone interview with Trump on Sunday. New leadership in Ukraine means “you’re not going to have a deal for a long time, right,” he said. (see this link).
- The WSJ also reported from late Sunday US time: "Trump spent most of last week playing down expectations for his so-called reciprocal tariff plan on April 2, saying repeatedly that he would be "nicer" than his previous pledges to equalize U.S. tariffs with those charged by other nations, and would consider exempting some nations from tariffs altogether. But in recent days Trump has pushed his team to be more aggressive, people familiar with the conversations said, encouraging them to devise plans that would apply higher rates of tariffs on a broader set of nations." (see this link).
