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GBPUSD TECHS: Bear Threat Still Present
- RES 4: 1.3789 High Jul 1 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.3726 High Sep 17
- RES 2: 1.3661 High Sep 18
- RES 1: 1.3422/3527 20-day EMA / High Oct 1 and a pivot level
- PRICE: 1.3353 @ 06:28 BST Oct 15
- SUP 1: 1.3249 Low Oct 14
- SUP 2: 1.3220 0.764 proj of the Sep 17 - 25 - Oct 1 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.3142 Low Aug 1 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3041 Low Apr 14
A short-term bear condition in GBPUSD remains intact. Recent weakness has resulted in the break of a key short-term support at 1.3333, the Sep 3 low. This signals scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on 1.3280, a Fibonacci retracement, it has been pierced. A clear break of it would open key support at 1.3142, the Aug 1 low. Initial resistance to watch is unchanged at 1.3422, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (Times BST)
| Date | Time | Period | Event |
| 15-Oct | 0900 | --- | BOE Ramsden Panel at Resolution Mechanism Conference |
| 15-Oct | 1645 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel on Financial Regulation |
| 15-Oct | 1900 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel at Fintech Foundation |
| 16-Oct | 0700 | Aug | GDP / Services / Production / Trade / Construction |
| 16-Oct | 0930 | --- | BOE Credit Conditions Survey |
| 16-Oct | 1400 | --- | BOE Mann in Panel on MonPol and Trade Shocks |
| 16-Oct | 1545 | --- | BOE Mann in MonPol Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings |
| 16-Oct | 1930 | --- | BOE Greene in Panel on UK/EU Relations |
| 17-Oct | 1035 | --- | BOE Pill Speech at Institute of Chartered Accountants |
| 17-Oct | 1200 | --- | BOE Greene Roundtable at Atlantic Council |
| 17-Oct | 1730 | --- | BOE Breeden in Panel at IMF/World Bank Meetings |
| 18-Oct | 1400 | --- | BOE Bailey at G30 International Banking Seminar |
| 21-Oct | 0700 | Sep | Public Sector Finances |
| 21-Oct | 0930 | --- | BOE Saporta Fireside Chat at Islamic Development Bank |
| 22-Oct | 0700 | Sep | Consumer inflation report / Producer Prices |
| 23-Oct | 1100 | Oct | CBI Industrial Trends |
AUSTRALIA: Difficult To Forecast Jobs Data Input Into November RBA Decision
Thursday September labour market data print and Bloomberg consensus expects employment to rise 20k with the unemployment rate up 0.1pp to 4.3% but the participation rate steady at 66.8%. The August data disappointed falling 5.4k but unemployment was steady at 4.2% and underemployment moderated further. RBA Governor Bullock pointed out that the jobs data are volatile and that it is best to look at 3-month or quarterly averages. This release will round out Q3.
- Employment forecasts are between 10k and 45k with most 18-25k. The Q3 average would be 13.7k if jobs grow by consensus’ 20k down from Q2’s 31k but above Q1’s -3.8k.
- AMP is at consensus while ANZ is below forecasting +10k and Macquarie above at +25k.
- Unemployment rate projections are within a narrow range of 4.2-4.4% with 8 economists projecting 4.2%, 16 4.3% and 1 4.4%. A 4.2% or low 4.3% would result in the Q3 average holding at 4.2%.
- CBA and Macquarie are forecasting 4.2% while ANZ, NAB, Westpac and AMP all expect a 0.1pp increase to 4.3%.
- The RBA looks at other indicators in the release to gauge labour market conditions including underemployment, which has been trending lower, and hours worked, which have been slowing. The youth unemployment rate is another series to monitor, which picked up in June.
