EU AUTOMOTIVE: Toyota Motor: 2Q25 Results
(TOYOTA; A1/A+/A+)
Equity lower with the street expected firmer guidance following the US tariff deal. We see no credit impact; it remains relatively well placed within the sector. It’s trading close to MBGGR and BMW, around the middle of recent ranges.
- Revenue was 2% ahead of BBG consensus, up 1% YoY with FX headwind. Deliveries were 3% better.
- EBIT was in line. Margin fell 330bp YoY to 6.8%. Margin turned negative at -1.3% in NA following US tariff implementation; it only managed 1.3% previously. Overall, tariffs impacted margin by 360bp.
- FY26 guidance upgraded:
- Sales +1%, 2% below consensus.
- EBIT +6%, 12% below consensus. Mainly due to FX assumptions.
- EBIT margin +30bp to 6.9%; 80bp below consensus.
- Tariff impact on margin ~3%, little changed.
- Not facing disruption from Nexperia currently.
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MNI: EUROZONE AUG RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y (VS -0.4% M/M, +2.1% Y/Y JUL)
- MNI: EUROZONE AUG RETAIL SALES +0.1% M/M, +1.0% Y/Y (VS -0.4% M/M, +2.1% Y/Y JUL)
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures Remain in a Bear-Mode Condition
WTI futures remain in a bear-mode condition. Last week’s sell-off resulted in a move through key support and the bear trigger at $60.85, the Aug 13 low. Clearance of this level strengthens a bearish theme and paves the way for an extension towards $57.50, the May 30 low. Initial firm resistance has been defined at $66.42, the Sep 29 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a reversal. A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and today’s fresh cycle high, reinforces current conditions. This maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows and note too that corrections, when they do occur, are shallow. Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on $3987.33 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch lies at $3715.0, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude up $0.97 or +1.59% at $61.85
- Natural Gas up $0.15 or +4.45% at $3.475
- Gold spot up $57.43 or +1.48% at $3944.61
- Copper down $5.05 or -0.99% at $505.95
- Silver up $0.7 or +1.45% at $48.6983
- Platinum up $11.84 or +0.74% at $1616.6
EQUITIES: EuroStoxx 50 Futures Maintain a Bullish Theme Following Recent Climb
Eurostoxx 50 futures maintain a bullish theme. Last week’s gains resulted in a breach of key resistance at 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. The break confirms a resumption of the uptrend. The impulsive climb opens the 5700.00 handle next, with potential for a test of 5727.18 further out, a Fibonacci projection. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Initial firm support is 5525.00, the Aug 22 high. A bull cycle in S&P E-Minis remains intact. The contract traded to a fresh cycle high last week to confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the positive price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6812.29, a Fibonacci projection. Initial support to watch is at the 20-day EMA, at 66.84.22. It has recently been pierced, a clear break of it would signal scope for a deeper pullback, potentially towards the 50-day EMA, at 6566.78.
- Japan's NIKKEI closed higher by 2175.26 pts or +4.75% at 47944.76 and the TOPIX ended 96.89 pts higher or +3.1% at 3226.06.
- Across Europe, Germany's DAX trades lower by 2.76 pts or -0.01% at 24377.13, FTSE 100 lower by 16.19 pts or -0.17% at 9475.19, CAC 40 down 149.89 pts or -1.85% at 7931.65 and Euro Stoxx 50 down 30.18 pts or -0.53% at 5621.53.
- Dow Jones mini up 60 pts or +0.13% at 47091, S&P 500 mini up 18.5 pts or +0.27% at 6782.75, NASDAQ mini up 113.5 pts or +0.45% at 25107.
