HYBRIDS: TotalEnergies (TTEFP: Hyb A2/A-/Au) NC29 Too Wide ?
• TTEFP 4.12 NC29 screening wide to curve if we price >Par to Call and <Par to Reset.
• For NC29 and NC30, I am using a straight-line interpolation from the same 2 senior bonds to calculate the Sub_Sen.
• TTEFP 4.12 NC29 has a low reset of +185.6 vs +240.4 for the NC30 which does account for some of the relative cheapness. As does the higher cash price for the 4.12%.
• IBVL PX_Last Source
| Ticker | Years to Worst | PX_last | YTW | Z Worst | Sub_Sen |
| TTEFP 1 5/8 NC28 | Reset 1/28 | 96.23 | 3.183 | 112.1 | 77.7 |
| TTEFP 4.12 NC29 | Call 11/29 | 101.51 | 3.739 | 151.4 | 110.0 |
| TTEFP 2 NC30 | Reset 9/30 | 92.08 | 3.714 | 142.6 | 88.0 |
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EQUITIES: US Cash opening calls
SPX: 5,936.0 (+0.0%); DJIA: 42,253 (-0.1%/-53pts); NDX: 21,518.5 (+0.1%).
EUROPEAN INFLATION: Avg March-May SA Services Inflation Softer Than '23 and '24
Eurozone core inflation prices fell 0.12% M/M in May according to the ECB’s seasonally adjusted data, after rising 0.45% in April. Unsurprisingly, services drove the pullback, with prices falling 0.17% M/M after a 0.70% increase in April. Core goods inflation was 0.06% M/M (vs -0.02% prior).
- As implied by the country-level NSA data over the past week, the services softness was largely a function of unwinding Easter effects. However, the extent of the SA and NSA deceleration from April’s levels could suggest more broad-based disinflation in non-travel-related categories. We’ll have to wait for the final release on June 18 to see whether that was the case.
- Attempting to correct for Easter effects, average monthly seasonally adjusted services inflation between March-May was 0.27% in 2025. That’s below the 0.41% seen in 2024 and 0.37% in 2023, providing further evidence that underlying disinflation is progressing.
- 3m/3m core inflation momentum eased to 2.70%, after 2.87% in April and 2.37% in March. Services momentum fell to 3.95% from 4.10% prior.
- Referencing the NSA data, JP Morgan write: “That core inflation in May (2.3%oya) undershot the March level (2.4%oya) may be linked to an additional distortion. The late Easter also comes with a late Pentecost this year, which also impacts short holidays in some countries (skewed towards June rather than May). This effect is smaller than the Easter effect but can be significant”.
STIR: SOFR Call Spread Buyers, Vol Sales
- +20,000 SFRN5 96.75/96.87 call spds, cab
- +10,000 0QM5 96.87/97.12 call spds, 1.5 ref 96.58
- -5,000 0QZ5 96.75 straddles, 68.5-68.0
