EU ENERGY SECTOR: TotalEnergies: Cuts Buyback Guidance

The IFO employment barometer decreased marginally to 93.8 points in August, from 94.0 in July. "The labour market is still stuck in crisis [...] The stagnating economy is making companies act cautiously when it comes to personnel planning", IFO comments.

• In industry the indicator rose to its highest since August 2024 (-17.1 vs -18.1 July). "although the barometer rose again, the signs are nevertheless still pointing to job cuts, albeit to a lesser extent than in the previous month. In all key industrial sectors, there were more layoffs than new hires."
• In services, the indicator has slipped into negative territory (-1.4 vs 0.5 July), having hovered around neutral for broadly a year now. "While temporary employment agencies are struggling with a slump in demand, the tourism sector is busy hiring."
• Note that today's release of German consumer confidence has mentioned expectations for potential job cuts likely weighed on the print.
• 'Hard' German labour market data is scheduled for this Friday, with the (seasonally-adjusted) unemployment rate expected to remain stable at 6.3%.

The latest polling from Ifop (carried out on 26 Aug, after PM Francois Bayrou's announcement of a confidence vote in his gov't) found a large majority of respondents in favour of the dissolution of the National Assembly and snap legislative elections. In total, 63% of respondents favoured dissolution, with 33% "absolutely" in favour. This represents an increase in overall support for dissolution from 41% in June and 50% in July. 

• Unsurprisingly, those in favour of dissolution are largely supporters of opposition parties. Among far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally, RN) supporters, 86% are in favour of snap elections, as are 75% of those who vote for the far-left La France Insoumise (France Unbowed, LFI). Only 36% of supporters of President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Rennaissance support snap elections.
• In terms of whether respondents believe President Macron will dissolve the National Assembly 49% say they think he will, 51% believe he will not. The proportion of those that think the president will call snap elections has increased from 30% in June and 34% in July.
• Seventy-four per cent of respondents believe the defeat of Bayrou in the upcoming 8 Sep confidence vote would be a sign France is "ungovernable". A total of 68% believe if snap elections take place and once again there is no clear governable majority, Macron would have to resign as president, but only 50% believe that LFI leader Jean-Luc Melenchon was right to move to dismiss Macron.
• Data from Polymarket shows bettors assigning a 20% implied probability that fresh elections are called by 15 September, rising to 41% by year-end. 

The German GfK consumer climate fell for the third consecutive time in the September advance reading, to -23.6 points, coming in below consensus which was for a -21.5 reading. The August print was revised slightly lower to -21.7.

• "The sharp decline in income expectations played a major role in this month's decline. By contrast, the propensity to save, which fell by only 0.6 points to 15.8 points, had only a marginal impact on the consumer climate this month. [...] A key reason for the noticeable decline in income expectations is likely to be growing concerns about job security."
• Business sentiment in Germany continues to be on an uptrend following the government's fiscal easing plans. This does not filter through to consumers so far.
• Private consumption growth in Germany slowed down but remained positive in Q2, at 0.1% Q/Q (0.6% Q1).