JAPAN: Tokyo CPI Watched for Implications on Underlying Inflation
In light of the US-Japan trade deal struck this week, as well as the political uncertainty surrounding Ishiba's standing as PM after the weekend's upper house election results - vols have been sold into this Friday's Tokyo CPI print from Japan. The headline is projected to remain close to 3.0% y/y across the headline and core metrics. This would be down slightly from the June pace, but only marginally. Focus is likely to be services inflation, after the June nation wide CPI print showed slightly firmer pressures in this space.
- Food and energy costs are expected to continue to support the headline - however anecotal evidence of relief in rice prices (the government has released rice reserves this year) could contain inflationary pressures here.
- Any implications for underlying inflation and the BoJ's hiking path will be of interest. Markets remain partially priced for a BoJ rate hike this year - but differences remain over the likelihood of a hike at either the October or December meeting (priced at +17bps and +22bps respectively).
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MIDEAST: Reports Of Iranian Missile Fired At Israel Despite Ceasefire
Reuters wire reports claiming that the Israeli military has identified a missile launched towards Israel from Iran could pose a sizeable risk to the fragile ceasefire that went into effect just hours ago. Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich posts on X: "Tehran will tremble". Opposition Yisrael Beiteinu party leader Agivdor Liebermann says "Three and a half hours after the President of the United States declared a ceasefire, firing from Iran into northern Israel. We must not tolerate, we must not refrain, we must respond immediately."
- A short time ago, the Israeli gov't released an official statement confirming that it had "achieved all of the objectives of Operation Rising Lion, and much more", confirming that "In light of having achieved the objectives of the operation, and in full coordination with President Trump, Israel agrees to the President's proposal for a bilateral ceasefire."It then added "Israel will respond forcefully to any violation of the ceasefire."
- Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said overnight that Iran would stop its actions at 04:00 local time (20:30ET, 01:30BST, 02:30CET).
- Ynet reports comments from the IDF saying it was a single missile fired at northern Israel, adding the projectile was intercepted and "as of this moment, no calls have been received about casualties except for a man who was injured on the way to the protected area."
- It remains to be seen whether such a launch will be viewed as a rogue action or a full violation of the ceasefire, which could see Israel resume strikes on Iranian targets.
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GILTS: Curve Twist Steepens
Gilt futures trade lower vs. settlement.
- Moves muted as oil prices tick away from overnight lows as Iran fires missiles at Israel, suggesting strain on the ceasefire agreement. News also pushes equities away from highs.
- Contract last -7 at 93.04, with bulls remaining in technical control.
- Key short-term support defined at the Jun 16 low (92.23).
- The bull trigger & June 13 high (93.68) presents the major area of upside interest.
- Yields 2bp lower to 1bp higher, curve twist steepens.
- PM Starmer faces ongoing political difficulties that could have fiscal ramifications.
- The BBC has reported that “more than 100 Labour MPs are supporting a fresh effort to block the government's planned changes to the benefits system”… “Dozens of Labour MPs have expressed concerns about the plans to cut disability and sickness-related benefits payments to save GBP5bn a year by 2030”.
- Looking ahead, a raft of BoE speak is due today with Bailey (x2), Pill, Ramsden, Greene & Breeden all due.
- Note that Breeden will speak at the UK Finance Digital Innovation Summit, so may not comment on monetary policy.
- Meanwhile one of Bailey’s appearances, as well as Pill’s appearance, will take place at a conference that looks back to the gold standard era, so may not reveal much new.
- Elsewhere, lower tier CBI trends data will cross this morning and the DMO will come to market with GBP1.7bn of the 1.125% Sep-35 I/L line.
