USDJPY TECHS: Through Bear Trigger

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.974 - HIgh Jan 16                              
• PRICE: $30.490 @ 08:19 GMT Jan 21  
• SUP 1: $29.509/28.748 - Low Jan 13 / Low Dec 19 and bear trigger        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. However, the metal traded higher last week suggesting scope for a continuation near-term. An extension would expose key resistance at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. Clearance of this level would signal a reversal. On the downside, support to watch is $29.509, the Jan 13 low, and $29.748, the Dec 19 low and the bear trigger.

The DMO has released the minutes of yesterday's consultations with gilt market participants. The findings surrounding issuance preferences are outlined below:

• There was GEMM support for "a reduction in the duration of conventional gilt issuance in 2025-26 relative to the current year [...] some attendees cited declining structural demand for gilts from the UK pension sector as a factor in their recommendation to reduce long issuance."
• "Mixed views were expressed about the number and sizes of syndications that could be scheduled in 2025-26, although most participants were supportive of their continued use next year. There were also isolated calls for auctions to be scheduled less frequently but in larger sizes than in 2024-25."
• "A number of attendees suggested that the proportion of index-linked gilt issuance could again be set at a reduced level in 2025-26 relative to previous years"
• "Attendees noted the importance of maintaining some flexibility in the delivery of the remit [...] calls for more regular use of gilt tenders as a means to deliver financing in response to demand and market conditions."
• "Continued issuance of green gilts next year was supported by attendees"
• "Some participants recommended that the average sizes of gilt auctions could be increased in 2025-26 relative to the current year, with a few suggestions that individual gilt lines could also be built to larger sizes."
• "A number of attendees suggested that issuance of Treasury bills should make a positive net contribution to financing in 2025-26"
• "The DMO's financing remit for 2025-26 will be published alongside the Spring forecast on 26 March 2025, following an updated OBR EFO"

• RES 4: 1.4669 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4564 3.500 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4516 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 1.4439@ 08:16 GMT Jan 21 
• SUP 1: 1.4261 Low Jan 20
• SUP 2: 1.4230 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD price action is volatile this week. A sharp sell-off yesterday resulted in a print below support at 1.4280, the 20-day EMA. Price has also traded through the 20-day EMA, at 1.4359. The pullback was short-lived and today’s reversal higher has delivered a fresh trend high of 1.4516. This highlights the fact that the uptrend remains intact and a continuation higher would open 1.4539, a Fibonacci projection. 1.4230, the 50-day EMA, marks key support.