BOC: TD No Longer Sees July Cut, Raises Terminal Rate 25bp

• Chinese policy advisors give their view of the likelihood of a trade deal with the U.S. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com

• RES 4: 6172.38 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 10 - 21 price swing     
• RES 3: 6124.00 High Feb 24  
• RES 2: 6080.75 High Feb 26
• RES 1: 6074.75 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 6028.75 @ 07:25 BST Jun 11  
• SUP 1: 5910.19/5808.04 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 2: 5756.50 Low May 23    
• SUP 3: 5596.00 Low May 7
• SUP 4: 5455.50 Low Apr 30

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis remains bullish and the contract has again traded to a fresh cycle high, today. The recent break of 5993.50, the May 20 high and a bull trigger, highlights a resumption of the uptrend and maintains a price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 6080.75 next, the Feb 26 high. Key support to watch lies at 5808.04, the 50-day EMA.

• Taking a step back, dispersion metrics of CPI inflation saw a mild uptick with 33% of ~190 items in the overall basket growing in excess of 3% Y/Y vs 29% in April.
• It’s the highest since February and before that May 2024, with the share having bottomed out at 28% in December. For context, it averaged 24% in 2019 or 19% in 2015-19.
• The same analysis for core goods saw the >3% Y/Y share rise from 14% to 19% in May for its highest since Feb and before that Apr 2024. As noted in the details, whilst there were multiple large increases in M/M rates for some specific items, there were also some surprisingly weak readings elsewhere.
• Further, whilst the latest level is above the 12% averaged in 2015-19, it’s only back to the 18.5% seen just in 2019, having peaked at 75% in 2022.
• The share of core services items growing >3% Y/Y largely consolidated an impressive recent drop, only rising 1pp to 51% having been at 63% in February. However, it averaged 38% in 2019 or 34% in 2015-19.