JAPAN: Takaichi Effectively Confirmed As Next PM After Ishin Ends Talks w/Oppo

TYV5 114.25 calls paper paid 0-09 on ~3.2K.

The lack of upside surprise in this morning’s CPI data provides support to gilts through early trade.

• Yesterday’s high in futures is pierced before the rally stalls, contact last trades 91.55 vs. highs of 91.62.
• Bulls remain in technical control, initial resistance at the September 11 high (91.82), while support comes in at the September 2 low (90.65).
• Yields ~1bp lower across the curve.
• Spread to Bunds little changed at ~194bp.
• GBP STIRs roughly in line with pre-gilt open levels detailed earlier, 8.5bp of BoE cuts priced through year-end.
• The outcome for this week’s MPC meeting can be boiled down to two discrete topics: the vote surrounding the pace of APF reduction and any updates on communications and the vote surrounding Bank Rate. The biggest uncertainty and market reaction is expected around the former, with much less focus being placed upon the latter - but neither aspect should be ignored.
• Our full preview of that event is here.
• Local headlines have pointed to a markdown in the OBR’s productivity forecasts and a negative outcome when it comes to steel tariffs imposed by the U.S.

EQUITY ROLL PACE: December has been the front Month for US already this Week, we'll look for Europe to also switch into Tomorrow.

As expected some Desks have favoured to Roll, Close positions ahead of the Fed.

US:

• ESA: 74%.
• NQA: 59% (below pace).
• DOW: 73%.

EU (As of Yesterday):

• VGA: 67%.
• Banks: 70%.
• Stoxx600: 73%.
• Dax: 60%.
• FTSE: 67%.