USDCAD TECHS: Support Remains Exposed

This morning, Germany will hold a Bobl auction. On offer will be E4.5bln of the 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl.

• The size is in line with the last re-open of this issue on July 29.
• Recent auctions in the German Bobl segment haven't seen the strongest demand metrics, bid-to-covers stood at 1.49x / 1.53x over the last two times, while bid-to-offers came in at 1.12x / 1.16x. These compare to ranges of 1.23-2.52x / 0.95-1.91x seen over the year, respectively. Low prices have been above the secondary market mid-prices throughout 2025.
• Bobl positioning appeared long as of last week. See our Europe PI here.
• The next German auction will be next tomorrow's 30-year auction with E1bln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341) and E1.5bln of the 2.50% Aug-54 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2D004) on offer.
• The 2.20% Oct-30 Bobl will be reopened next on September 16.
• Timing: Results will be available shortly after the bidding window closes at 10:30BST / 11:30CET.

• RES 4: $41.064 - 1.764 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 3: $40.285 - 1.618 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
• RES 2: $40.000 - Psychological round number
• RES 1: $39.655 - 1.500 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing    
• PRICE: $37.964 @ 08:06 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: $36.216 - Low Jul 31 
• SUP 2: $35.285 - Low Jun 24
• SUP 3: $33.940 - 50.0% retracement of the Apr 7 - Jul 23 bull leg  
• SUP 4: $32.958 - Low Jun 2

Trend signals in Silver remain bullish. The pullback off the late July highs is considered corrective - particularly as prices have recovered off support at the 50-day EMA, now at $37.077. A clear break of it is needed to strengthen a short-term bearish threat and allow for a deeper retracement. This would open $35.285, the Jun 24 low. For bulls, a resumption of gains would refocus attention on the next objective at $39.655 a Fibonacci projection.

• RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 10  
• RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
• RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
• RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1 and a bull trigger 
• PRICE: 1.3804 @ 08:02 BST Aug 19
• SUP 1: 1.3763/22 20-day EMA / Low Aug 22
• SUP 2: 1.3576 Low Jul 23 
• SUP 3: 1.3557/40 Low Jul 3 / Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing

A bear threat in USDCAD remains present, despite the recent shallow recovery. Attention is on support around the 20-day EMA, at 1.3763. A clear break of this EMA would resume the correction off the early August high. This would expose 1.3576, the Jul 23 low. Key medium-term support and the bear trigger lies at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. For bulls, a break of 1.3879, the Aug 1 high, would cancel a bear threat and resume the recent bull cycle.