USDJPY TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Intact

• Spain will look to hold a Bono/Obli auction on Thursday. The auction size will be confirmed today. On offer will be the on-the-run 3.00% Jan-33 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P74), the on-the-run 10-year 3.20% Oct-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012P33) and the on-the-run 30-year 4.00% Oct-54 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012M93).
• France will then come to the market, also on Thursday, to hold an MT OAT auction. On offer will be a combined E10.0-12.0bln of the on-the-run short 3-year 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2), the on-the-run 5-year 2.70% Feb-31 OAT (ISIN: FR001400Z2L7), the 1.50% May-31 OAT (ISIN: FR0012993103) and the 3.50% Nov-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400L834)
• France will return later on Thursday to conclude issuance for the week with an IL OAT auction. On offer will be E0.5-1.0bln combined of the 0.10% Jul-36 OATei (ISIN: FR0013327491), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367) and the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181)
• Cancelled auction: The PDMA will not hold its auction originally scheduled for Wednesday and has confirmed that it has completed bond issuance for 2025.

NOMINAL FLOWS: This week will see redemptions of E18.7bln, largely from a formerly 7-year BTP. Coupon payments for the week total E4.6bln of which E3.3bln are Italian and E1.2bln German. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E5.1bln, down from positive E12.6bln last week.

The EU, Slovakia, Finland, Spain and France will all look to come to the market this week. We pencil in issuance of E28.4bln for the week, up from E13.0bln last week.

See the full document here for a look ahead to the next two weeks of issuance and a recap of last week.

• The EU will look to hold a syndication this week – likely its last of 2025.
• Slovakia will kick off auction issuance for the week tomorrow with its last auction of the year (ARDAL has already confirmed that the December reserve auction will not take place). On offer will be the 3.00% Feb-28 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024683), the 0.375% Apr-36 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000018958), the 4.00% Feb-43 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022547) and the 2.00% Oct-47 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4120013400).
  • We have not seen a Slovak auction with two SlovGBs on offer with residual maturities in excess of 15 years for at least seven years.
• Finland will also look to hold its last conventional auction of 2025 tomorrow. As expected the 10-year on-the-run 3.00% Sep-35 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000587415) will be one of two RFGBs on offer with the on-the-run 30-year 2.95% Apr-55 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000566294)

• RES 4: 0.8893 2.000 proj of the Sep 15 - 25 - Oct 8 price swing    
• RES 3: 0.8875 High Apr 25 
• RES 2: 0.8868 61.8% retracement of the 2022 - 2024 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8865 High Nov 14
• PRICE: 0.8827 @ 06:41 GMT Nov 17
• SUP 1: 0.8777 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.8763 Low Nov 3
• SUP 3: 0.8734 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 0.8706 Low Oct 24 and a key support  

The trend condition in EURGBP remains bullish and fresh cycle highs last week reinforce current conditions. The move higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on 0.8868 next, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, initial key short-term support to watch lies at  0.8777, the 20-day EMA. A break would highlight the start of a corrective phase.