USDCAD TECHS: Support At The 50-Day EMA Remains Exposed
- RES 4: 1.4314 61.8% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16
- RES 3: 1.4200 Channel top drawn from Jul 23 low
- RES 2: 1.4140/67 High Nov 5 / 50.0% of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4131 High Nov 21
- PRICE: 1.4032 @ 16:21 GMT Nov 27
- SUP 1: 1.4025/3993 Intraday low / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 1.3923 Bull channel base drawn from the Jul 23 low
- SUP 3: 1.3888 Low Oct 29 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.3833 Low Sep 24
The move lower in USDCAD Wednesday once again highlights a short-term bear threat. Support to watch is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3995. A clear breach of the average would strengthen a bear theme and expose the base of a bull channel at 1.3923. The channel is drawn from the Jul 23 low. On the upside, a resumption of gains would open 1.4140, the Nov 5 high and the next key resistance.
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EGBS: Bunds Steady Through the Open; Focus on Supply & Fed
- Bunds traded steady headed through the going into the Cash Open as markets await the main event of the week,w with the FOMC meeting today.
- Initial support of 129.13 and the resistance at 130.07 have been untested this week, meaning these levels hold into the Fed decision at 1800GMT.
- In Europe, Spanish prelim GDP is the only notable data release, and came in very modestly softer against expectations (2.8% Y/Y vs. Exp. 2.9%).
- As per the MNI Fed Preview: The Fed is overwhelmingly expected to cut the funds rate by 25bp for a 2nd consecutive meeting today. This will again be framed as a risk management cut, with the limited data available since the September meeting not disconfirming that the shift in the balance of risks had tilted toward labour market downside. Dissent to this decision should once again be limited to Gov Miran in favour of a 50bp cut.
- SUPPLY: UK sells £3.75bn of 2033 Gilts (equates to 26.1k Gilt) which could weigh into the bidding deadline. Germany sells €4.5bn 10yr Bund (equates to 38.1k Bund), which should weigh on the contract. US sells $30bn of 2yr FRN, which shouldn't impact Treasuries.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Powell's presser. The ECB remain inside their pre-meeting media blackout period.
AUDUSD TECHS: Recovery Accelerates
- RES 4: 0.6707 High Sep 17 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 0.6660 High Sep 18
- RES 2: 0.6644/46 76.4% of the Sep-Oct bear leg / 2.0% 10-dma Env.
- RES 1: 0.6618 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6608 @ 08:07 GMT Oct 29
- SUP 1: 0.6543 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6493 Low Oct 24
- SUP 3: 0.6440 Low Oct 14
- SUP 4: 0.6415 Low Aug 21 / 22 and a key key support
A bull cycle in AUDUSD remains intact and this week’s rally reinforces current conditions. The break higher also marks an acceleration of the short-term upleg and sights are on 0.6629, the Sep 30 and Oct 1 high. Clearance of this level would strengthen the bullish condition. On the downside, support to watch lies at 0.6543, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a clear break of the EMA would undermine the current bull cycle.
MNI: SPAIN Q3 FLASH GDP +0.6% Q/Q, +2.8% Y/Y (VS +0.8% Q/Q, +3.0% Y/Y Q2)
- MNI: SPAIN Q3 FLASH GDP +0.6% Q/Q, +2.8% Y/Y (VS +0.8% Q/Q, +3.0% Y/Y Q2)
