ENERGY: Summary on Current US Tariffs
US tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada remain in place. The US added a 25% levy on US imports from both countries, although Canadian oil imports are at a lower rate at 10%
- The most recent change to the tariff regime is a new one-month exemption for automakers, giving them time to adjust.
- “We are going to give a one-month exemption on any autos coming through USMCA,” White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said.
- Wider reciprocal tariffs will still go into effect from April 2 against any country with levies against US goods. “Whatever they tax us, we will tax them,” Trump said.
- Both Canada and Mexico have promised to impose retaliatory tariffs in response.
- Canada’s foreign minister Melanie Joy said that Canada could potentially use oil and gas exports as a level in negotiations if US tariffs on Canada escalate.
- Canada has not yet suggested it would either reduce exports of key commodities to the United States or impose tariffs on them.
- Canada exports 4m b/d of oil to the USA, around 90% of its total exports.
- Meanwhile, Mexico’s President Claudi Sheinbaum expects to speak to Trump today regarding the tariffs.
- Save a last-minute delay/cancellation to the tariffs, Mexico will announce counter measures on March 9.
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US TSY/RECAP: Kion Headines
"*KION SEES 2025 FCF, NET INCOME SHORT OF MARKET EXPECTATIONS" - BBG
SWEDEN: Jan Meeting Minutes: Risks Still Tilted Towards More Easing
The January meeting minutes suggest the Executive Board is happy with the current level of rates for now, as they assess the impact of past easing and look for more certainty around the international trade outlook. Governor Thedeen embodied this view most clearly, in our view. However, comments from other members suggest risks are clearly still tilted towards more easing.
- Deputy Governor Breman noted that “the probability of the next step being a further rate cut is greater than the next step being a rate hike”, while Bunge still questioned whether monetary policy is “too contractionary” at current levels.
- Although Deputy Governor Seim generally considers current rates to be at appropriate levels, she still highlighted that the Riksbank is prepared to cut rates further, in the event the economy doesn’t recover as expected.
- On inflation, there continues to be broad-based confidence in the outlook. Deputy Governor Jansson and Governor Thedeen highlighted recent increases in producer prices as a risk to monitor, but that these developments do not yet change the assessment of monetary policy.
- Recent upturns in growth indicators were widely flagged, but the Board still needs evidence to confirm activity is picking up. Deputy Governor Bunge pointed towards the Riksbank’s Q1 Business Survey as an important release ahead of the March decision.
- Of course, concerns around US tariffs remain prevalent, but discussions around possible policy responses were limited, with uncertainty still clouding the outlook.
FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 2.26bn at 1.0300/1.0320.
AUDUSD 1.6bn at 0.6275 (a bit far).
EURUSD 1.04bn at 1.0300(wed).
EURUSD 2.99bn at 1.0300/1.0320 (thu).
GBPUSD 1.24bn at 1.2455 (thu).
EURUSD 1.51bn at 1.0400 (mon).
USDJPY 1.94bn at 154.00 (mon).
USDCAD 1.13bn at 1.4425 (mon).
- EURUSD: 1.0250 (1.08bn), 1.0265 (470mln), 1.0280 (910mln), 1.0300 (1.25bn), 1.0320 (1.01bn), 1.0325 (200mln), 1.0375 (1.04bn), 1.0395 (300mln), 1.0400 (921mln).
- USDJPY: 154.00 (661mln).
- AUDUSD: 0.6275 (1.6bn).
