USDJPY TECHS: Struggling to Bounce
- RES 4: 152.31 High Feb 19
- RES 3: 151.62 61.8% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 2: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 1: 150.92 High Aug 1
- PRICE: 147.70 @ 14:41 BST Aug 8
- SUP 1: 146.65 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 146.64 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 3: 146.62 Low Aug 5
- SUP 4: 145.86 Low Jul 24
USDJPY consolidated for much of the week, holding the bulk of the NFP losses. This has allowed a previously overbought condition to unwind, and keeps the downside argument in focus. The recent break and close below 147.57, the 20-day EMA, is a concern. A clear break of this support zone would undermine the recent bull theme. A break of last week’s 150.92 high would resume the uptrend.
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STIR: Projected Rate Cuts Steady to Pre-Minutes Levels
- Projected rate cut pricing has gained momentum vs morning (*) levels: Jul'25 at -1.7bp (-1.2bp), Sep'25 at -18.6bp (-17.3bp), Oct'25 at -33.7bp (-31.7bp), Dec'25 at 52bp (-49.3bp).
US TSYS: Update: Post June FOMC Minutes React
- Treasury futures extending session highs after June FOMC minutes released - Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trade +15.5 at 111-08.5 (110-23.5L / 111-08.5H), resistance to watch is at 111-28, the Jul 3 high.
- Curves mixed: 2s10s -2.429 at 48.025; 5s30s +0.555 at 95.738.
- USD inching lower, Bbg index BBDXY -0.20 at 1196.44; US stocks firmer but off early session highs: SPX eminis +25.75 at 6297.75
US: Voters Response To OBBB Sets Up Challenging Midterm Elections For GOP
A new survey from YouGov has found that 53% of Americans strongly or somewhat oppose the GOP’s Big Beautiful Bill, with 35% supporting it. YouGov notes: “Opposition to the budget has risen 10 percentage points since we first asked about it in April of this year.”
- YouGov notes: “52% of Americans — including 80% of Democrats and 22% of Republicans — believe the federal budget deficit will increase as a result of Trump's budget; 11% think it will remain the same and 19% think it will decrease
- “Very few Americans support reducing or eliminating funding for four social services asked about: Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and SNAP … Majorities want funding to be increased for Social Security (61%) and Medicare (56%), and sizable shares do as well for Medicaid (49%) and SNAP (41%)”
- The survey highlights the political challenge for Republicans ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. While the bill's passage is a major win for the Trump administration, it appears to open the door for a Democrat messaging campaign centred on cuts to safety net programmes.
Figure 1: “Thinking about the following U.S. program, do you believe it should be given more or less funding? (% who say each program should be given...)”
Source: YouGov
