EGBS: Spreads To Bunds Widen As Equities Trade Heavy Post NFP

Jan-10 15:50

10-year peripheral spreads to Bunds have widened through the afternoon, with global (particularly US) equities trading heavily following the US NFP and UMich data. The BTP/Bund spread unsurprisingly displays the highest beta to equity moves, now 2.5bps wider today at 117bps.

  • The spread reached a multi-year closing tight of 106.5bps in December 2024, but still remains historically tight at current levels.
  • Demand for Italian paper nonetheless remains robust, with this week’s 10-year BTP syndication seeing record order books in excess of E142bln. The E13bln size also exceeded MNI’s expectations of E10bln.
  • The GGB/Bund spread is 2bps wider, now back at 80bps. GGBs continue to outperform peers year-to-date though, on the back of fiscal tailwinds and a conservative ’25 issuance target.
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Historical bullets

EURGBP: Bearish Momentum Bears Down on Major Support

Dec-11 15:50

A fourth consecutive session of lower lows and lower highs for EUR/GBP as the cross continues to pile pressure on support, with 0.8203 the level to watch - the Mar 7 ‘22 low and the lowest point of a multi-year range. A break through support here would work against the RSI and could tip the price into technically oversold territory for the first time since September.

  • This week's break lower has cancelled a recent bullish signal - an engulfing candle on Nov 12 - as rate differentials and aggressive ECB pricing dictate play. OIS markets now re-price over 6 x 25bps cuts in the coming 8 meetings, while BoE pricing has held generally stable across late November/early December.

BOC SAYS WEAKER CAD DRIVEN BY USD STRENGTH

Dec-11 15:49
  • BOC SAYS WEAKER CAD DRIVEN BY USD STRENGTH
  • BOC SAYS CAD HAS BEEN RESILIENT AGAINST OTHER CURRENCIES
  • BOC SAYS MUST ACCOUNT FOR CAD'S IMPACT ON CPI AND GROWTH

BOC: FULL US TARIFFS WOULD BE HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE TO CANADA

Dec-11 15:45
  • BOC: FULL US TARIFFS WOULD BE HIGHLY DISRUPTIVE TO CANADA