JPY: Spills Lower on Decent Volumes, But Not in Sufficient Size for Intervention

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The Swiss government and KOF institute have raised their domestic economic growth forecasts as these now incorporate the 15% US - Swiss tariff deal. The revisions bring the forecasts roughly in line with the SNB's view from last week, which continue to be consistent with a policy rate at 0% for the foreseeable future.

• Specifically, the government sees growth in 2025 at 1.4% (from 1.3% in the last projection in October), 2026 at 1.1% (0.9% October), and 2027 at 1.7% (new). These new forecasts match the view of KOF institute to 1dp for all three years in the horizon.
• The government draw a positive outlook for Q4: "Available data and surveys indicate that GDP growth will resume in the final quarter of the year" after Q3 was very weak at -0.5% Q/Q.
• KOF meanwhile adds "the positive effect of lower tariffs is partially offset by the gloomy international outlook", specifically mentioning a gloomy outlook for Germany.
• For reference, the SNB expects 2025 growth at "just under 1.5%" and 2026 growth at "around 1%".

• On the commodity front, Gold traded higher last week, reinforcing a bullish theme. The bear phase between Oct 20 and 28 appears to have been a correction and note that the recovery since Oct 28 signals the end of that corrective cycle. Key support to watch is the 50-day EMA, at $4069.6. Clearance of this EMA would signal scope for a deeper retracement. Attention is on key resistance and the bull trigger at $4381.5, the Oct 20 high.
• A bearish theme in WTI futures remains intact and the move down last week reinforces this theme. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term downtrend. A continuation of the bear leg would open key support and the bear trigger at $55.99, the Oct 20 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend. Key short-term resistance is $61.84, the Oct 24 high.