EUROPEAN INFLATION: Spain Flash Nov Core HICP Looks In Line With Expectations

Spanish headline inflation was a touch higher than expected in November. However, core metrics look to have printed in line with consensus.

• Headline HICP inflation rose 3.1% Y/Y, down from 3.2% prior but above the 3.0% consensus. Core HICP (excluding energy and unprocessed foods) was steady at 2.6% Y/Y.
• Headline CPI was 3.0% Y/Y as expected, down from 3.1% in October. The sequential increase of 0.2% M/M was slightly above the 0.1% consensus, suggesting only rounding kept Y/Y headline CPI in line. Core CPI ticked up to 2.6% Y/Y (vs 2.5% prior) as expected.
• INE notes that “This trend is mainly due to the decrease in electricity prices, compared to the increase in November 2024. Meanwhile, the Leisure and Culture category contributes to the increase, with prices falling, but less than in the same month of the previous year; and Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages, which see price increases, compared to the decrease last year”.
• Unfortunately, there are no details as to whether the leisure and culture acceleration was due to "underlying" core components, or volatile items such as package holidays. Some analysts had suggested package holidays could see strength on an annual basis in November.
• Spain accounts for 12% of the Eurozone HICP basket.