USDCAD TECHS: Southbound
- RES 4: 1.4200 Round number resistance
- RES 3: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 2: 1.4005/16 50-day EMA / High May 12 / 13
- RES 1: 1.3915 20-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3818 @ 08:14 BST May 23
- SUP 1: 1.3814/3751 Low May 8 / 6 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.3744 76.4% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.3696 Low Oct 10 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3643 Low Oct 9 ‘24
Recent gains in USDCAD gains appear to have been a correction and the trend condition remains bearish. Furthermore, this week’s move lower reinforces a bearish theme and note that MA studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.3744, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance to watch is 1.4005, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this hurdle would signal a reversal.
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GILTS: Aggressive Twist Flattening In Light Of Remit
Curve twist flattens in light of the modest mark lower in the DMO’s gilt issuance remit ahead of the open (twisting driven by short and unallocated buckets seeing an increase in size, as did T-bill issuance, while longs saw a reduction. See previous bullets for greater details).
- Yields 3bp higher to 11bp lower.
- Futures through both yesterday’s highs and initial resistance (92.63), peaking at 92.85 so far.
- Next resistance at 93.00, followed by a Fibonacci retracement (93.44).
- Outperformance vs. Bunds noted in light of the remit, with the 10-Year spread 6bp narrower at 204bp.
- Potential that this morning’s rally is being exacerbated by the unwind of some overnight hedges that looked for an increase in gilt remit size.
- Flash PMIs headline the UK data calendar today, with BoE speak due from Pill (11:30 BST), Bailey (18:15 BST) & Breeden (19:00 BST) due throughout the day.
EGB SYNDICATION: Austria Triple Tranche Tap: Guidance
2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+20 Area
3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+67 Area
3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7)
- Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+98 Area
For all:
- Settlement: April 30, 2025
- Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Citi, DB, GS, JPM, RBI
- Timing: May price today
(Details as per BBG)
SILVER TECHS: Short-Term Trend Set-Up Remains Bullish
- RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28
- RES 1: $33.117/151 - 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg / High Apr 22
- PRICE: $32.787 @ 08:07 BST Apr 23
- SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
- SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24
- SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support
Silver is in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.278. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.
