USDCAD TECHS: Southbound

Curve twist flattens in light of the modest mark lower in the DMO’s gilt issuance remit ahead of the open (twisting driven by short and unallocated buckets seeing an increase in size, as did T-bill issuance, while longs saw a reduction. See previous bullets for greater details).

• Yields 3bp higher to 11bp lower.
• Futures through both yesterday’s highs and initial resistance (92.63), peaking at 92.85 so far.
• Next resistance at 93.00, followed by a Fibonacci retracement (93.44).
• Outperformance vs. Bunds noted in light of the remit, with the 10-Year spread 6bp narrower at 204bp.
• Potential that this morning’s rally is being exacerbated by the unwind of some overnight hedges that looked for an increase in gilt remit size.
• Flash PMIs headline the UK data calendar today, with BoE speak due from Pill (11:30 BST), Bailey (18:15 BST) & Breeden (19:00 BST) due throughout the day.

2.50% Oct-29 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3EPP2)

• Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+20 Area

3.20% Jul-39 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A3D3Q8)

• Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+67 Area

3.15% Oct-53 RAGB (ISIN: AT0000A33SK7)

• Guidance: EUR Benchmark Tap MS+98 Area

For all:

• Settlement: April 30, 2025
• Bookrunners: Barclays (B&D), Citi, DB, GS, JPM, RBI
• Timing: May price today

(Details as per BBG)

• RES 4: $36.000 - Round number resistance 
• RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 ‘24 and the bull trigger
• RES 2: $34.590 - High Mar 28  
• RES 1: $33.117/151 - 76.4% of Mar 28 - Apr 7 bear leg / High Apr 22                                       
• PRICE: $32.787 @ 08:07 BST Apr 23
• SUP 1: $30.577/28.351 - Low Apr 10 / 7 and the bear trigger                
• SUP 2: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24 
• SUP 3: $27.180 - Low Aug 14 ‘24   
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8 ‘24 and a key support   

Silver is in consolidation mode and holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. The latest recovery undermines a bearish theme. Price has traded through an important resistance around the 50-day EMA - at $32.278. The break higher signals scope for a test of $33.117, a Fibonacci retracement. It has been pierced, clearance of this level would strengthen a bullish condition. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at $30.577, the Apr 10 low.