AUDUSD TECHS: Southbound

• RES 4: 0.6762 High Oct 9   
• RES 3: 0.6733 High Oct 13             
• RES 2: 0.6591/88 50-day EMA / High Nov 7 and a reversal trigger  
• RES 1: 0.6523/50 20-day EMA / High Nov 25
• PRICE: 0.6434 @ 17:07 GMT Dec 04
• SUP 1: 0.6399 Low Dec 04
• SUP 3: 0.6350 Low Aug 5 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 0.6339 Low Nov 10 2023 
• SUP 4: 0.6259 1.000 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing 

The trend condition in AUDUSD remains bearish and Wednesday’s fresh cycle low reinforces current conditions, marking a resumption of the downtrend. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position too, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Scope is seen for a move towards 0.6350, the Aug 5 low and the next key support. Initial firm resistance to watch is 0.6523, the 20-day EMA. 

SOFR and Treasury options flow included decent two-way positioning in calls and puts Wednesday as underlying futures continued to climb higher after this morning's lower than expected ISM services data. Projected rate cuts into early 2025 continued to gain, current levels vs. this morning's (*) as follows: Dec'24 cumulative -18.9bp (-18.5bp), Jan'25 -25.3bp (-24.4bp), Mar'25 -41.3bp (-39.0bp), May'25 -51.5bp (-47.8bp).

• SOFR Options:
  • +10,000 SFRH5 95.50/95.75/95.87/96.00 put condors 1.25 ref 95.86
  • 11,600 0QZ4 97.00 calls ref 96.27
  • Block/pit total -40,000 SFRH5 95.75/96.00/96.25 put flys, 4.75 ref 95.83
  • +5,000 SFRZ4 95.50/95.56 2x1 put spds 0.25
  • Block, 5,000 SFRM5 95.75/96.00/96.25 put flys, 4.0 net ref 96.00
  • +15,000 SFRM5 96.00/96.25 call spds vs 0QM5 97.25 calls 0.25 net/cvrd
  • -5,000 SFRZ4 95.56/95.62/95.68 call flys, 2.25 ref 95.585
  • +1,000 SFRH5 95.81/0QH5 96.25 straddle strip, 80.25
  • -2,000 SFRM5 96.00 straddles, 51.5 ref 9598.5
  • -4,000 SFRM5 95.50/96.00 3x1 put spds ref 9599
  • Block, -9,000 SFRH5/M5/U5 97.50/98.50 1x2 call spd strip, 3.5 net package
  • 10,000 SFRH5 95.56 puts vs. 95.87/96.00 call spds ref 95.82
  • +6,000 SFRM5 96.06/96.18 call spds vs. 2QM596.75/96.87 call spd spd, 1.0 net steepener
  • -5,000 SFRF5 95.87/96.0625/96.25 put flys, 2.0 ref 95.825
• Treasury Options:
  • 7,800 TYF5 111.5 calls, 33 ref 111-04.5
  • 5,000 FVF5 108/109 1x2 call spds ref 107-14.5 to -14.75
  • 4,000 wk1 TY 109.5/109.75 put spds, 2 ref 110-24.5, expire Friday
  • +4,400 weekly Mon US 120/121 call spds, 9 ref 118-23, expire 12/9
  • 2,000 TYF5 112.75/113.25 call spds ref 110-31

• RES 4: 165.04/166.69 High Nov 15 / High Oct 31 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: 164.76 High Nov 20 and a key short-term resistance 
• RES 2: 162.32 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 158.64/161.27 High Dec 2 / 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 158.08 @ 17:05 GMT Dec 4
• SUP 1: 156.18 Low Dec 03
• SUP 2: 156.05 Low Sep 17
• SUP 3: 155.15 Low Sep 16 and a key support 
• SUP 4: 153.87 Low Dec 8 / 14 2023 

EURJPY remains soft, despite the recovery off the weekly lows into the Wednesday high. Recent weakness marks an extension of the current bear cycle. A number of retracement points have been cleared and most recently, 157.87, 76.4% of the Sep 16 - Oct 31 bull cycle, has been pierced. A clear break of it would strengthen a bearish theme and open 155.15, the Sep 16 low. Initial firm resistance is 161.27, the 20-day EMA. A breach of this average is required to signal a reversal.