EU FINANCIALS: Societe Generale €1bn 10NC5 Tier 2 - Final Terms

Retail sales rose by 5.9% Y/Y in the week ending October 11, per the latest Johnson Redbook index. As such that's the same as month-to-date (the September calendar for retailers ended Oct 4, October's ends Nov 1).

• Despite the seemingly robust headline growth figure, his report carried with it one of the more notable anecdotes of caution due to macroeconomic factors, which points to softer discretionary spending.
• From the report: "As retailers launched promotions to compete with Amazon’s Prime Big Deal Days sales, October 7-8, and the Columbus Day promotion, shoppers began stockpiling basic apparel and essential items while also getting a head start on holiday shopping. This behavior indicates that consumers are being cautious amid concerns about employment, the cost of living, and the general impact of tariffs, leading them to prioritize essential purchases over discretionary spending. October is a critical month for retailers striving to meet quarterly sales targets, with key merchandise themes centering on mid-fall seasonal apparel, Halloween, winter sports, and early holiday shopping. Merchants reported that sales in these categories are beginning to gain momentum."
• We won't get the September Census Bureau retail sales report on Oct 16 as scheduled due to the federal government shutdown, though we continue to note that private-sector data for that month was solid including Redbook's 6.1% Y/Y. The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary (CARTS) should provide its final estimate for September Retail sales ex-auto on Wednesday (the prelim estimate was 0.3% M/M, pointing to softer sequential gains but a strong Y/Y rise.

• MNI: US REDBOOK: OCT STORE SALES +5.9% V YR AGO MO
• US REDBOOK: STORE SALES +5.9% WK ENDED OCT 11 V YR AGO WK

Natixis recommend longs in U.S. 5-Year ZCS, noting that their economics team sees “2025 core PCE inflation at 3% and above, and a Fed cutting into still-sticky inflation, which could increase demand for inflation hedges heading into 2026. We have been watching for a retracement for the past several months, and with the recent declines find levels approaching 2.50% attractive”.