EU FINANCIALS: Société Générale $1bn WNG PerpNC10 AT1 - Revised IPT

"SPANISH ECONOMY MINISTER: TREASURY TARGETS 55 BILLION EUROS IN NET DEBT ISSUANCE FOR 2026" Reuters

Seems to be a comment to reporters as opposed to the 2026 issuance plan release. The full funding plan is not expected till later this month or early next year.

• Speaking to the MNI Policy Team last month, the Spanish Treasury's Deputy Head of Funding and Debt Management Rocío Trueba Miralles told MNI that the issuance plan, when released, should contain "no big changes" from this year's funding plan.
• Indeed, E55bln of net issuance would be in line with the revised target for 2025 announced at the end of Q3.
• We haven't seen many explicit expectations for 2026 Spanish net issuance to compare with, but note that Danske Bank pencilled in net sales of E64bln last month.

• In the FI space, Bund futures remain in a bear-mode cycle following last week’s impulsive sell-off and Monday’s bearish acceleration. The contract has traded through the 128.00 handle, paving the way for an extension towards 127.19 next, a 2.382 projection of the Nov 12 - 20 - 26 price swing. Key short-term resistance is 128.75, the Dec 3 high. Note that the contract has entered oversold territory. A corrective bounce would allow the oversold condition to unwind.
• The extension lower in Gilt futures yesterday exposes the next important support at 90.53, the Nov 25 and 26 low. A breach of this level would undermine a recent bull theme and instead signal scope for a deeper retracement towards 89.86, the Nov 19 low and a bear trigger. For bulls, a resumption of gains would signal scope for a climb towards resistance at 92.55, the Nov 11 high. Initial resistance to watch is 91.93, the Nov 27 high.

BLS releases two months of JOLTS data for September and October at 1000ET today, having last published August data just prior to the government shutdown. These should be full releases for each month as opposed to next week’s partial backfill for the nonfarm payrolls report.  

• Bloomberg consensus looks for job openings to fall to a seasonally adjusted 7117k in October after 7227k back in August at what would be the lowest since Sep 2024 and before that late 2020.
• Alternative indicators broadly chime with this up to the end of October although suggest differing trajectories since then.
  • Indeed job openings ended October 3.3% lower than Aug but started from a relatively higher base than JOLTS openings (which are projected to have dropped by 1.5%). Most of this decline was reversed in November though, ending the month just 0.5% lower than end-Aug.
  • Revelio active job postings fell 2.7% between August and October, before extending this to a cumulative 3% decline with November.
• The ratio of openings to unemployed dipped from 1.00 to 0.98 in August for a fresh low and technically its first sub-1.0 since Apr 2021 after averaging 1.04 in Feb-Jul. There is scope for a larger fall for September considering household employment increased 219k to 7603k. However, with no household survey set to be released for October, we’ll assume unemployment held at September’s level for now.
• Powell in September noted the ratio remained near 1 as a part of a number of other labor market indicators that remain broadly stable, but we assume greater sensitivity if this starts falling materially lower. For context, it averaged 1.2 in 2019 and 1.0 in 2017-18 - see chart.
• Elsewhere in the report, we’ll watch the quits rate after its 9-month low of 1.94% in August following a third consecutive monthly drop and the hires rate after easing further to 3.21% for its lowest since Sep 2021 excluding the pandemic-hit Apr 2020. The level of layoffs could also receive attention but offer less additional information compared to other metrics here.