EM CEEMEA CREDIT: SOAF: special National Exec Comm'ee mtg at w/e

The Bundesbank weekly activity tracker firmly points towards weak developments in the first half of Q3 in Germany.

• Most recently published data (from yesterday) for the w/c August 3 implies a German GDP growth rate for the last 13 weeks compared with the preceding 13 weeks of -0.3%. The current weakness started to intensify in early June, coinciding with weak industrial activity data for that month (June Industrial Production Weaker Then Expected).
• Note that the indicator can see material revisions as more data is collected over time and tracking performance to GDP has not always been consistent (see charts below). For now though the trends indicated appear to be quite clear-cut, with the current period of weakness holding up weeks after the initial deterioration. Nevertheless, we do advise some caution around putting too much weight on the data.
• The WAI fluctuates around its long-term mean of 0. Positive values indicate above-average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a below average increase or a decline in economic output. The index takes into account data on electricity consumption, truck mileage, flight activity, foot traffic, air pollution, credit card payments, as well as German google searches for "unemployment", "short-time work", and "state support".

OAT Basis trade, suggest Cash buyer:

• OATU5 ~7.9k at 123.05.