USDCAD TECHS: Slips Sharply on USD Downdraft

Aug-06 06:59
  • RES 4: 1.4111 Apr 10  
  • RES 3: 1.4019 38.2% retracement of the Feb 3 - Jun 16 bear leg 
  • RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
  • RES 1: 1.3879 High Aug 1
  • PRICE: 1.3768 @ 07:57 BST Aug 6
  • SUP 1: 1.3732/3557 20-day EMA / Low Jul 03
  • SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
  • SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
  • SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024

A short-term bullish corrective phase in USDCAD remains in play despite sharp weakness Friday. On the recent run higher, price traded through the 50-day EMA at 1.3743 and this has been followed by a break of resistance at 1.3798, the Jun 23 high. Clearance of 1.3798 represents an important short-term bullish development, signaling scope for a stronger recovery. Sights are on 1.3920 next, the May 21 high. On the downside, initial firm support to watch lies at 1.3732, the 20-day EMA.

Historical bullets

GILT TECHS: (U5) Monitoring Resistance

Jul-07 06:59
  • RES 4: 93.76 High Jul 1 and key resistance   
  • RES 3: 93.41 High Jul 2      
  • RES 2: 93.26 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 -2 sell-off   
  • RES 1: 92.79 High Jul 4
  • PRICE: 92.38 @ Close Jul 4 
  • SUP 1: 92.12/91.63 Low Jul 3 / 2  
  • SUP 2: 91.50 61.8% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg 
  • SUP 3: 91.16 Low Feb 2     
  • SUP 4: 90.97 76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg       

Gilt futures faced strong selling pressure on Jul 2. The move down has cancelled a recent bullish theme - price breached the 20-day EMA and traded through a key support at 92.23, the Jun 16 low. The break suggests potential for an extension towards 91.50 next, a Fibonacci retracement. Price action is volatile. Initial resistance to watch is 92.79, the Jul 4 high. A resumption of gains would open the 93.41 high instead.

GILTS: Opening calls

Jul-07 06:57
  • Gilt calls, 92.33/92.37.

Watch Bund and Tnotes, they are at session lows, but mostly Two way flows.

EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls

Jul-07 06:55

Estox 50: +0.17%, Dax: +0.18%, CAC: -0.05%, FTSE -0.09%, SMI +0.01%.