AMERICAS OIL: SLB - 3Q2025 Earnings Highlights

• RES 4: 114-10   High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 3: 114-10   1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
• RES 2: 114-00   Round number resistance 
• RES 1: 113-29   High Sep 11
• PRICE:‌‌ 113-07+ @ 19:43 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: 112-28   20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 112-05+ 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 110-25   Low Aug 1 

Treasury futures are trading lower today - a corrective pullback and a bull-mode condition remains intact. Note that the recent impulsive rally signalled an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-28, the 20-day EMA.

• WTI has fallen today following a large crude stock draw, with a further decline following the Fed’s announcement of a 25bp cut to rates.
• However, crude is still holding onto most of the week’s gains, supported by Russian supply risks amid Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and potential sanctions.
• WTI Oct 25 is down by 0.8% at $64.0/bbl.
• The Fed signalled two more cuts this year, with the median projection of fed funds rate at end-2025 at 3.6%.
• The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish, with sights on initial resistance at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger, followed by $57.71, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
• Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, after some short-lived volatility around the Fed decision, which saw the yellow metal briefly reach a fresh record high at $3,707.6/oz.
• The yellow metal is currently down by 1.0% $3,652/oz.
• Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the next objective at $3,705.2, a Fibonacci projection, which was briefly pierced earlier. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $3,558.8, the 20-day EMA.
• Elsewhere, silver has notably underperformed today, with the precious metal currently down by 3.0% at $41.3/oz and extending losses post the Fed decision.
• Trend signals in silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.721, the 20-day EMA.

• Still early in Powell’s presser and longer dated SOFR futures (from SFRZ6 onwards) have more than reversed gains seen with the FOMC announcement and SEP.
• SFRZ6 is -4.5 ticks since Powell started, for -0.5 post-announcement and -4.5 on the day.
• Those losses are increasingly large further out with SFRZ7 -5.5 on Powell for -3 post-announcement and -8 on the day.
• Much nearer-term, Dec FOMC OIS points to 46.5bp of cumulative cuts in the two meetings left this year vs 43bp pre-announcement.