AMERICAS OIL: SLB - 3Q2025 Earnings Highlights
Oct-17 18:56
Company highlighted the quarter was largely in line with expectations but noted it was the first quarter they reported revenue from their data center solutions business which more than doubled year-over-year.
- Expect the fundamentals for oil and gas to remain constructive as they see global inventories at multi-year lows and a need to offset natural production declines, which accounts for nearly 90% of annual upstream investment.
- They stated the OPEC+ production releases will eventually require new infield drilling or new development to meet higher supply output, setting up a positive catalyst for higher activity in 2026.
- For offshore Deepwater activity, SLB stated they believe rig dissipation may be at the bottom in 4Q2025 and expect a gradual strengthening of offshore rig activity to pick up with an uptick in the later part of 2026 and strengthening further in 2027.
- Outside the US they are expecting an activity rebound in the mid-term, anticipating an increase in activity in 1H2026 for both oil and gas.
- Because of tightening economics, they do not anticipate a significant gain in US activity once supply-demand rebalance and do think efficiency gains and further consolidation could keep activity upticks at bay. However, they do anticipate activity to pick up elsewhere, particularly Deepwater.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (Z5) Corrective Pullback
Sep-17 18:54
- RES 4: 114-10 High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 3: 114-10 1.0% 10-dma envelope / High Apr 7 (cont.)
- RES 2: 114-00 Round number resistance
- RES 1: 113-29 High Sep 11
- PRICE: 113-07+ @ 19:43 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: 112-28 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: 112-05+ 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 111-13+ Low Aug 18 and a key support
- SUP 4: 110-25 Low Aug 1
Treasury futures are trading lower today - a corrective pullback and a bull-mode condition remains intact. Note that the recent impulsive rally signalled an acceleration of the uptrend. Also, moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. This suggests scope for an extension through 114-00 next and a test of 114-10, the Apr 7 high (cont). Initial firm support to watch is 112-28, the 20-day EMA.
COMMODITIES: Crude Falls, Precious Metals Lose Ground Post Fed
Sep-17 18:52
- WTI has fallen today following a large crude stock draw, with a further decline following the Fed’s announcement of a 25bp cut to rates.
- However, crude is still holding onto most of the week’s gains, supported by Russian supply risks amid Ukrainian attacks on energy infrastructure and potential sanctions.
- WTI Oct 25 is down by 0.8% at $64.0/bbl.
- The Fed signalled two more cuts this year, with the median projection of fed funds rate at end-2025 at 3.6%.
- The trend condition in WTI futures remains bearish, with sights on initial resistance at $61.29, the Aug 13 low and the bear trigger, followed by $57.71, the May 30 low. On the upside, initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high.
- Meanwhile, spot gold has fallen during Fed Chair Powell’s press conference, after some short-lived volatility around the Fed decision, which saw the yellow metal briefly reach a fresh record high at $3,707.6/oz.
- The yellow metal is currently down by 1.0% $3,652/oz.
- Gold remains in a clear bull cycle, with the next objective at $3,705.2, a Fibonacci projection, which was briefly pierced earlier. On the downside, initial firm support lies at $3,558.8, the 20-day EMA.
- Elsewhere, silver has notably underperformed today, with the precious metal currently down by 3.0% at $41.3/oz and extending losses post the Fed decision.
- Trend signals in silver remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Sights are on $42.974 next, a Fibonacci projection. Support to watch is $40.721, the 20-day EMA.
STIR: Full Reversal of SEP Rally In Late 2026 Rates Onwards
Sep-17 18:49
- Still early in Powell’s presser and longer dated SOFR futures (from SFRZ6 onwards) have more than reversed gains seen with the FOMC announcement and SEP.
- SFRZ6 is -4.5 ticks since Powell started, for -0.5 post-announcement and -4.5 on the day.
- Those losses are increasingly large further out with SFRZ7 -5.5 on Powell for -3 post-announcement and -8 on the day.
- Much nearer-term, Dec FOMC OIS points to 46.5bp of cumulative cuts in the two meetings left this year vs 43bp pre-announcement.
