USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Reversal Inside A Bull Channel

After the RBNZ’s outsized 50bp OCR cut on 8 October, the outlook for the 26 November meeting will be highly data dependent. This week September card spending and monthly price data are released and as they round off the quarter should give an indication of how Q3 consumption and inflation developed.

• Monday sees the September performance of services index which has consistently printed below the breakeven 50-level for around two years.
• August net migration is released Monday. As the labour market has deteriorated, net inward migration has moderated.
• September card spending is on Tuesday. The retail component has been gradually recovering since Q2 and annual growth picked up to 1.7% y/y in August from 1.2%. The RBNZ said this month that lower rates appear to be supporting consumption and as mortgages rollover onto lower rates it should improve further.
• The monthly price series for September print on Thursday ahead of Q3 CPI on 20 October. Food inflation stabilized at 5.0% y/y in August with rents rising 2.1% y/y down from 2.3% but electricity rose 11.4% y/y up from 11.0%. Petrol prices continued to contract.
• RBNZ Chief Economist Conway speaks on Wednesday at 1145 NZDT on the lessons from monetary and fiscal policy during COVID-19. So it appears his comments will be more backward looking rather than examining the policy outlook.

US President Donald Trump is shortly due to deliver an announcement in the White House Oval Office. LIVESTREAM The announcement is expected to relate to drug pricing and could follow a similar template to a recent pledge from Pfizer. 

• The announcement will be Trump's first press remarks since a market-moving Truth Social statement earlier today in which Trump suggested calling off a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and raising tariffs on China in response to new export controls from Beijing on rare earths. See earlier bullets here and here. 

No ratings actions for Belgium from Moody's, which is quoted in a press release on Bloomberg: "Moody's Ratings (Moody's) has completed a periodic review of the ratings of Belgium and other ratings that are associated with this issuer. The review was conducted through a rating committee held on 2 October 2025 in which we reassessed the appropriateness of the ratings in the context of the relevant principal methodology(ies), and recent developments. This publication does not announce a credit rating action and is not an indication of whether or not a credit rating action is likely in the near future."

• There had been some speculation there could be a ratings action - MNI wrote Thursday: "* Moody's on Belgium (Current rating Aa3, Outlook Negative): We expect Moody's to maintain their current stance in the absence of 2026 budget details."