COMMODITIES: Short-Term Gains for WTI Futures Considered Corrective
The trend condition in WTI futures is unchanged - a bear cycle remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective. The pullback from the Sep 2 high highlights a possible reversal and the end of the corrective phase. Initial resistance to watch is $66.03, the Sep 2 high. Key short-term resistance has been defined at $69.36, the Jul 30 high. A stronger resumption of weakness would pave the way for a move towards $57.71, the May 30 low. Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The yellow metal has traded to a fresh all-time high again this week. The break higher confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3674.8, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3474.7, the 20-day EMA.
- WTI Crude down $0.45 or -0.71% at $63.22
- Natural Gas up $0.01 or +0.26% at $3.037
- Gold spot down $14.69 or -0.4% at $3627.31
- Copper down $0.75 or -0.16% at $461.05
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.25% at $41.0708
- Platinum down $10.89 or -0.78% at $1383.04
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GERMAN DATA: Bundesbank Weekly Activity Tracker Holds Recent Deterioration
The Bundesbank weekly activity tracker firmly points towards weak developments in the first half of Q3 in Germany.
- Most recently published data (from yesterday) for the w/c August 3 implies a German GDP growth rate for the last 13 weeks compared with the preceding 13 weeks of -0.3%. The current weakness started to intensify in early June, coinciding with weak industrial activity data for that month (June Industrial Production Weaker Then Expected).
- Note that the indicator can see material revisions as more data is collected over time and tracking performance to GDP has not always been consistent (see charts below). For now though the trends indicated appear to be quite clear-cut, with the current period of weakness holding up weeks after the initial deterioration. Nevertheless, we do advise some caution around putting too much weight on the data.
- The WAI fluctuates around its long-term mean of 0. Positive values indicate above-average growth in real economic activity, while negative values signal a below average increase or a decline in economic output. The index takes into account data on electricity consumption, truck mileage, flight activity, foot traffic, air pollution, credit card payments, as well as German google searches for "unemployment", "short-time work", and "state support".
SPAIN AUCTION RESULTS: 3/9-month letras results
| Type | 3-month letras | 9-month letras |
| Maturity | Nov 7, 2025 | May 8, 2026 |
| Amount | E900mln | E1.625bln |
| Target | E2-3bln | Shared |
| Previous | E834mln | E1.966bln |
| Avg yield | 1.929% | 1.959% |
| Previous | 1.905% | 1.905% |
| Bid-to-cover | 2.32x | 2.14x |
| Previous | 2.52x | 1.79x |
| Previous date | Jul 08, 2025 | Jul 08, 2025 |
OAT: Basis trade
OAT Basis trade, suggest Cash buyer:
- OATU5 ~7.9k at 123.05.
