USDJPY TECHS: Short-Term Confirmed

• RES 4: 161.95 High Jul 3 ‘24 and a major resistance
• RES 3: 161.46 1.618 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 2: 160.79 1.500 proj of the Jan 27 - Feb  - 12 price swing
• RES 1: 160.46 High Mar 30 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 158.65 @ 16:36 BST Apr 1  
• SUP 1: 158.28 Low Apr 1
• SUP 2: 157.42 50-day EMA 
• SUP 3: 156.46 Low Mar 5 
• SUP 4: 155.85 Low Mar 2 

The trend needle in USDJPY continues to point north and short-term pullbacks are considered corrective. The breach of the 160.00 handle strengthens the bullish condition. Note too that moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant medium-term uptrend. Sights are on 160.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support to watch lies at 157.42, the 50-day EMA.

Consensus currently looks for a 65k monthly increase in nonfarm payrolls in March after two heavily conflicting reports that included a far weaker than expected -92k in February but also a particularly robust +126k in January. 

• There were two healthcare-related temporary hits in February, one fully expected (strikes, 31k of 32k total) and one less so (reversal after a severe flu season in January, boosting and then dragging on healthcare jobs), whilst the weather might well have played a role but it was still hard to square away the extent of industries reporting job losses.
• The return of those striking workers, mostly UNAC/UHCP physicians, will mean that ‘underlying’ payrolls growth should be seen at 32k weaker than whatever is reported on Friday.
• As such, jobs growth in line with consensus would translate to a ~30k increase which although soft in outright terms would still outstrip some estimates of zero breakeven jobs growth this year.
• Going against this temporary unwind of returning strikers, Scotiabank caution that “The funding issues surrounding the Department of Homeland Security could knock tens of thousands off nonfarm payrolls in March. Out of 260,000 DHS employees, estimates suggest that 90% worked but without pay. That means around 25–30k gets lopped off payrolls and there could be negative spillover effects upon other types of jobs like discouraging air travel.”

• RES 4: 0.8797 High Dec 17
• RES 3: 0.8789 High Feb 27 and key resistance
• RES 2: 0.8747 76.4% retracement of the Feb 27 - Mar 16 bear leg
• RES 1: 0.8742 High Mar 31
• PRICE: 0.8714 @ 16:35 BST Apr 1
• SUP 1: 0.8684 50-day EMA  
• SUP 2: 0.8637/10 Low Mar 26 / 16 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8597 Low Aug 14
• SUP 4: 0.8578 Low Jul 2 ‘25 

A strong rally this week in EURGBP confirms a clear reversal of the bear cycle between Feb 27 and Mar 16. The rally signals scope for a test of resistance at 0.8747, the 76.4% retracement of the Feb - Mar bear leg. Clearance of this level would open 0.8789, the Feb 27 high and a key resistance. Support to watch lies at 0.8684, the 50-day EMA, where a clear breach would highlight a potential short-term bear reversal.